There have been 820 qualified quarterback seasons since 2000. None of them saw a bigger performance leap (as measured by EPA per play) between the final three games and the rest of the season than Bryce Young in 2024. In other words, we’ve never seen a quarterback go from so cold to so hot to finish a season.
Young finished last season with a bang, totaling 10 touchdowns and no turnovers in the final three weeks of the season, good for the fourth-highest EPA per play mark (0.34) in the NFL. He ranked 30th in that category over the Carolina Panthers’ first 14 games of the season (-0.16).
One of the turning points was in Week 12 when Young led the Panthers from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to tie the Chiefs with under two minutes left. Carolina didn’t come out on top in that game but it was one of the many where they were battle-tested in the second half of the season leading to valuable experience for Young. Seven of the Panthers’ final nine games were decided by one score and four went to overtime.
Late-season leap
It was a stunning turn of events considering Young was benched after Week 2 of 2024 following a disastrous start to his career. At that point he ranked bottom five among quarterbacks in NFL history in record (2-16), yards per attempt (5.4) and touchdown percentage (1.9%). It was truly rock bottom and so naturally people speculated he could be done with Carolina even though the benching proved to be a quick reset.
He regained the job in Week 8 and steadily showed improvement:
- First 18 career starts: 2-16 record, 12 total TD, 19 turnovers
- Next seven starts: 2-5 record, 10 total TD, eight turnovers
- Last three starts: 2-1 record, 10 total TD, zero turnovers
Young built momentum from the near upset of the Chiefs until breaking through at the end, becoming the first quarterback since Drew Brees in 2019 with at least 10 total touchdowns and no turnovers in the final three games of the season. Kirk Cousins (2015) and Peyton Manning (2006) are the only other quarterbacks to pull that off since 2000. He capped it off by tying a franchise-record with five total touchdowns (three rushing, two passing) in an overtime win in Atlanta in the final week of the regular season.
The most encouraging part of Young’s performance was what we see under the hood. He wasn’t dinking and dunking his way down the field. He had the fourth-longest average throw length (9.5 yards downfield) in the final three weeks, coupled with the sixth-lowest off-target rate (8.0%). Only 30% of his passing yards came from YAC in this stretch, the lowest rate in the NFL among quarterbacks to start the final three games. So don’t confuse the zero turnovers for not taking risks.
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Other notable cold-to-hot performances
So he’s in the clear, right? Did the Panthers dodge a major bullet and steer Young from a JaMarcus Russell-level bust to a talented quarterback ready for a breakout season? Not so fast.
Remember the note off the top on how no quarterback went from cold to hot quite like Young? Well, I combed through the most notable hot-and-cold stretches this century and looked for players like Young. Mainly unproven commodities early in their careers who finished the season with a bang. There’s mixed results.
2008 JaMarcus Russell
- 51% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 7 TD, 6 INT in first 12 games
- 63% completion, 8.0 yards per attempt, 6 TD, 2 INT in final three games
Russell is not the first name you want to see on this list if you’re Young, but here we are. The former No. 1 overall pick held out before his rookie year in 2007 and only started one game that season. He was dreadful for most of his second season in 2008 before finishing the season with three straight games with multiple touchdown passes. It was fool’s gold as he started just nine more games in his career after that brief hot stretch.
2008 Matt Cassel
- 200 pass yards per game, 7 TD, 7 INT in first nine games
- 270 pass yards per game, 14 TD, 4 INT in final eight games
Matt Cassel took over for Tom Brady in 2008 after Brady tore his ACL in the season opener. He got off to a slow start before throwing 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions in his last seven games. It was a good enough showcase for the Chiefs to trade for Cassel the following offseason, but he only had one more productive season for the rest of his career.
2013 Geno Smith
- 11 total TD, 23 turnovers in first 12 games
- 7 total TD, two turnovers in final four games
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away … Geno Smith was a struggling rookie QB with 11 total touchdowns and 23 turnovers in his first 12 career games. This was way back in 2013. He improved down the stretch winning three of his final four starts of the year. Smith did not pick up where he left off, making just 14 more starts in his Jets career.
2015 Kirk Cousins
- 7.3 yards per attempt, 18 pass TD, 11 INT in first 13 games
- 9.7 yards per attempt, 10 pass TD, 0 INT in final three games
Cousins eventually stepped out of Robert Griffin III’s shadow and broke out in his fourth season, finishing the year with 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his final three games. Cousins has made $287 million since that year. Safe to say he did OK for himself.
2018 Sam Darnold
- 56% completion, 12 pass TD, 15 INT in first 10 games
- 63% completion, 5 pass TD, 0 INT in final three games
Sam Darnold followed the Smith plan. He offered the Jets some hope with a nice run at the end of his rookie year but quickly played his way out of town after that. Like Smith, it took Darnold a few more stops to break out.
2021 Davis Mills
- 66% completion, 6.4 yards per attempt, 10 pass TD, 9 INT in first eight games
- 71% completion, 7.8 yards per attempt, 6 pass TD, 1 INT in final three games
Davis Mills finished strong in his rookie year of 2021 filling in for Deshaun Watson. He played well enough to win the job in 2022 after Watson was traded. That obviously didn’t last long as Houston drafted C.J. Stroud in 2023.
2023 Jordan Love
- 59% completion, 14 pass TD, 10 INT in first nine games
- 70% completion, 18 pass TD, INT in last eight games
Jordan Love was the biggest mystery in the NFL in 2023 after taking over for Aaron Rodgers. A lot of question marks remained after his erratic play through nine games before cooking with 18 touchdown passes and one interception in his final eight games of the season. He hasn’t looked back since.
What’s next for Young?
There’s no set path to stardom. Some of those “breakouts” proved to be a mirage, the product of a small sample, while others were just the beginning.
One thing working in Young’s favor is a pair of potential playmakers. The Panthers drafted Xavier Legette (6-foot-3, 227 pounds) in the first round in 2024 and then took Tetairoa McMillan (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) eighth overall in 2025. McMillan could be a true WR1 for the Panthers after Legette failed to emerge as Young’s top target last season.
The addition of a star wide receiver has been the difference for a few young quarterback breakouts in recent years, including Josh Allen (with Stefon Diggs), Joe Burrow (with Ja’Marr Chase) and Jalen Hurts (with A.J. Brown).
The Panthers are betting that McMillan can speed up Young’s development and ensure that last season’s hot stretch was not a one-hit wonder.