As annual degree ceremonies take place on campuses across the country this month, new graduates will doubtless be turning their thoughts to enjoying some stress-free time off. Given the current state of the labour market, some may be forced to make that break a long one.
For university leavers, these are worrying times. A mounting pile of data suggests that accessing the kind of entry-level jobs that traditionally put degree holders on a path to professional success is becoming ever harder. One report published last month by the job-search site Indeed found that the market for young people fresh out of university is tougher than at any time since 2018. Compared with last year, the number of jobs advertised for recent graduates is down 33%.
Some of the squeeze can be put down to a general slowdown in hiring, as employers opt for caution in an unpredictable, growth-starved economic climate. Another analysis, published this week, found that the number of entry-level jobs on offer throughout the labour market has fallen. But the steepest drop-off appears to be in professional occupations, where the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) may be beginning to affect the bottom rungs of the white-collar career ladder.
According to some analysts, a growing number of companies are using AI to perform many of the collative, summarising or research-heavy kind of tasks that young graduates might previously have done. IBM’s human resources department now deploys AI to perform 94% of routine tasks, including performance reviews and development plans. Other employers may be hiring fewer graduates than in the past on the assumption that the use of AI will transform their productivity.
For a graduate cohort whose education was blighted by the pandemic, and which is burdened by an average student debt of about £45,000, such developments risk stunting careers before they have begun. Recruitment systems are steadily being transformed through the introduction of AI-driven sifting processes, in which applications are rejected without a human judgment being made. A sustained contraction of the graduate job market, as pathways into professional careers are shortsightedly shut down in the name of cost savings, would further undermine trust between the generations at a time when it is already in short supply.
The technology minister, Peter Kyle, has urged businesses and employees to “act now” in gaining AI skills or risk being left behind, and the government hopes to collaborate with tech companies to deliver training to 7.5 million workers. But a focus on those hoping to enter the digitised workplace is also clearly needed. The evidence that entry-level jobs in areas such as law, finance and consulting are becoming scarcer should set alarm bells ringing both in Westminster and in boardrooms.
Politically and economically, the country cannot afford to waste the acquired skills, creativity and dynamism of those who have actually come of age in the digitised world. That may mean companies eventually reimagining the spectrum of early career opportunities that can be offered to recent graduates. But business and government should make it a priority to ensure that they are given the openings and encouragement they need in a rapidly transforming environment. Innovations such as ChatGPT have become embedded in everyday life at vertiginous speed. But their benefits must not come at the expense of the young talent that will be crucial to shaping our future.
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