Keir Starmer is battling to stem the revolt over his cuts to disability benefits, with about 50 Labour MPs concerned the new concessions will create a “two-tier” system where existing and new claimants are treated differently.
Senior government sources insisted things were “moving in the right direction” for No 10, with the whips phoning backbenchers to persuade them to support the bill on Tuesday.
Government insiders said they believed they had peeled off enough of the original 120-plus Labour opponents of the legislation to win the vote, after the work and pensions secretary, Liz Kendall, promised to exempt current disability claimants from the changes, and to increase the health element of universal credit in line with inflation.
However, rebel MPs will attempt to lay a new amendment on Monday giving colleagues a chance to delay the bill, which will still involve £2.5bn of cuts to future disability benefits.
The continuing row over the changes is likely to blight the week that will mark the first anniversary of Labour’s return to power.
In an interview on Thursday, Starmer admitted to a range of mistakes – including using the phrase “an island of strangers” in an immigration speech, and hiring his former chief of staff Sue Gray.
His government has made a series of U-turns in the last 12 months, but his handling of the welfare bill might be the most damaging episode of them all.
Starmer will next week be hoping to draw a line under the difficult period, in which the government has also reversed cuts to winter fuel payments and changed course over holding an inquiry into grooming gangs.
Dozens of Labour MPs are continuing to speak out against the welfare cuts on a Labour WhatsApp group. Many MPs are still undecided about how they will vote and are pressing for more assurances that it is ethical and legal to set up a division between current and future claimants.
Disability charities have said the bill remains “fatally flawed” and will lead to an “unequal future” for different groups of disabled people, making life harder for hundreds of thousands of future claimants.
The government confirmed on Friday night that people who have to make new claims for Pip after November 2026 will be assessed under the new criteria. This means those reapplying after losing their Pip or who have fluctuating health conditions will not have the level of their previous awards protected.
Starmer defended the bill on Friday, saying it struck the right balance. The changes will protect 370,000 existing recipients who were expected to lose out after reassessment.
The prime minister said: “We talked to colleagues, who’ve made powerful representations, as a result of which we’ve got a package which I think will work, we can get it right.”
Asked how the government would pay for the £3bn of concessions, which experts believe will have to be funded by tax rises or extra borrowing, Starmer replied: “The funding will be set out in the budget in the usual way, as you’d expect, later in the year.”
There would need to be at least 80 rebels to defeat the bill, and government sources were quietly confident they had given enough ground after Meg Hillier, the chair of the Treasury committee, said she would back the legislation following changes.
However, others were unconvinced. One leading rebel said “everyone but a handful of people is unhappy”, even if they do end up reluctantly backing the changed legislation. Another expressed frustration that No 10 and the whips were “trying to bounce people into agreeing before we’ve seen enough details”.
Rachael Maskell, the Labour MP for York Central, a leading opponent of the bill, said: “They are going to have to go back to the negotiating table … deaf and disabled people’s organisations are rejecting these changes as it fails to address future need and gives no security for people with fluctuating conditions, for instance where people are in remission.”
There have been widespread protests since the bill was announced. Photograph: ZUMA Press, Inc./Alamy
Other critics who plan to vote against the bill include the MP for Crawley, Peter Lamb, who said: “Despite many improvements to the system set out in the bill, at its core the bill remains a cost-cutting exercise. No matter the level of involvement of disability groups in co-producing a scheme for new applicants, to save money the new scheme has to result in people with high levels of need losing the support necessary to wash themselves, dress themselves and feed themselves.”
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Simon Opher, the MP for Stroud, said he still opposed the bill. “The changes do not tackle the eligibility issues that are at the heart of many of the problems with Pip [personal independence payments]. The bill should be scrapped and we should start again and put the needs of disabled people at the centre of the process.”
Diane Abbott, a leading figure from the left of Labour, said the rebellion was “far from over”, while another Labour MP said: “The bill starts from the premise of cuts, not reform. It’s also arse about face in terms of impact assessments and co-production. It’s simply a negotiated dog’s dinner. In that sense, nothing has really changed except the fact they’ve negotiated more [people to] misguidedly to sign up to it.”
One thing Labour MPs are pushing for is more clarity on the review of the Pip system, due to be done by the autumn by Stephen Timms, a work and pensions minister. Many expect that process to change the points system from what has been proposed so far. Some in the party also want Starmer to reinstate Vicky Foxcroft, who quit as a whip to vote against the bill before the U-turn was made.
Stella Creasy, a leading Labour MP who had initially signed the amendment to delay the bill, said she wanted to see more details. “The concern is to get to be workable … We need to understand why we would treat one group of claimants differently from another,” she said.
A Labour MP from the 2024 intake said: “I’m waiting to look at the details before making any decisions. Many are in the same place as me and need to get something more than a midnight email on an issue of this much importance to hundreds of thousands of people.”
The Labour MPs opposed to the changes are citing a fundamental rejection of the idea that a Labour government will be making disabled people worse off. At the same time, many of them have also been alienated by what they say is a No 10 operation that is out of touch with the parliamentary party, and has tried to strongarm MPs into backing the legislation by threats and promises of preferment.
“Good will has been lost and there is still huge suspicion about whether they will try and pull a stunt at the last minute,” said one Labour MP.
The majority of disability charities and campaign groups still opposed the cuts. Ellen Clifford, from Disabled People Against Cuts, said: “Many people who rely on Pip to survive have fluctuating conditions which means our support needs can go up and down. By penalising existing claimants if we go out of and then go back to the benefits system depending on our health, more people will be denied the support they need.
“This is exactly why no disabled people’s organisation across the whole of the UK has welcomed these concessions because we know the complexities of the social security system and bitter experience from years of cuts that there are many ways in which grand sweeping statements about protections translate to very little in practice when you go into the detail of it.”
The disability equality charity Scope said that despite the concessions, an estimated 430,000 future disabled claimants would be affected by 2029-30.
Its strategy director, James Taylor, said: “It is encouraging that the government is starting to listen to disabled people and MPs who have been campaigning for change for months. But these plans will still rip billions from the welfare system.
“The proposed concessions will create a two-tier benefits system and an unequal future for disabled people. Life costs more if you are disabled. And these cuts will have a devastating effect on disabled people’s health, ability to live independently or work.”