“It’s all about the matchups.”
If you’ve played Fantasy Football for even just half a season, you’ve probably heard that term. If a player faces a tough defense, it’s anticipated that his stats will be worse than normal. If a player faces an easy defense, you figure he’ll have a chance to be very effective. Obviously it’s not foolproof because it’s pro football and crazy things happen every week, but anything that helps you make the best decision possible for your lineup is worth it.
To that end, you’ll never make a decision you’d second-guess if you take an elite-tier quarterback. Guys like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are matchup-proof as they’ve been known to crush everyone, including the toughest of the tough. If you like easy decisions, target a quarterback early.
If you’d rather make similarly simple decisions at other positions, you can wait to take a quarterback. The talent crop isn’t quite as good as the first five or six guys who will get taken, but it’s not like they’re total rubes. Obviously there’s more risk involved, so you should consider doing anything you can do to lower that risk and ease concerns.
One of the things you can do? Evaluate the schedules of all non-elite quarterbacks. Or, just read up on it from a guy who’s studied every defense, every scheme, every everything that would impact a quarterback.
That’s what I’ve done this offseason with the goal of projecting how each defense will perform. The end result is a ranking for every team’s quarterbacks based on their schedule. And I’ll use this information not to make major Fantasy decisions, but as a tiebreaker between two quarterbacks who I have equally tiered based on their play, their receivers, etc.
Matchups don’t matter for the greats, but they do for everyone else. We know it when we set lineups — why shouldn’t we consider them when we draft?
Complete Fantasy Strength of Schedule breakdowns by position: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end
The Niners have a top five favorable schedule across every position. This includes at quarterback where Purdy has the third-easiest projected schedule for 2025 and the easiest projected schedule for the first four weeks of the season. This has more to do with their matchups against the NFC South and AFC South than it does their intra-division foes. Purdy’s path to success is easier than it’s been in years, even if his receiving corps seems shaky.
Don’t sour on the dual-threat. His schedule rated out sixth-easiest for the season and second-easiest for the first four weeks. He opens the year against the Saints and Panthers before starting divisional play in Weeks 3 and 4, then he gets the Titans in Week 5. If he starts hot, you could try to move him in a deal for a top-tier QB, but it’s not like his schedule gets real tough until maybe Week 13.
NFC South has it good. All four of the NFC South teams have top five projected grades for the season. This is because only the Buccaneers defense graded out nicely against the pass, meaning the other defenses in the division figure to offer favorable matchups. You’d assume the Bucs would benefit the most but their games against other first-place teams actually put them fifth overall with the other three NFC South teams ahead of them. This adds a little sleeper appeal for Bryce Young and Michael Penix Jr. (I can’t trust a Saints QB yet).
NFC North has it tough. In addition to everyone facing each other twice, the NFC North plays against the NFC East and the dreaded AFC North. This is on top of a Packers defense with a deep pass rush, a Lions defense that was good without its top pass rusher for most of last year, a Bears defense with a quality secondary and a Vikings defense with an unrelenting pass rush of its own. You should know that J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings have the second-toughest graded QB season-long schedule with the Packers fourth-toughest, Lions fifth-toughest and Bears closer to the middle of the pack.
Others with favorable schedules: Sam Darnold (seventh-easiest projected schedule), Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson (eighth), C.J. Stroud (ninth), Trevor Lawrence (10th).
QBs with favorable early-season schedules (potential sell-high candidates in October): Murray, Stroud, Bo Nix
QBs with tough early-season schedules (potential buy-low candidates in October): Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for the season through Week 17
CAR1 DAL17 NO2 NYG18 SF3 PHI19 ATL4 BUF20 ARI5 CHI21 TB6 WAS22 SEA7 PIT23 IND8 LAC24 HOU9 LV25 JAC10 KC26 NE11 CLE27 DEN12 DET28 LAR13 GB29 TEN14 MIN30 NYJ15 BAL31 MIA16 CIN32
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for first four weeks
SF1 MIN17 ARI2 MIA18 DEN3 PIT19 CAR4 PHI20 HOU5 LAC21 WAS6 LAR22 NE7 GB23 ATL8 CIN24 IND9 TB25 JAC10 DAL26 SEA11 CLE27 BUF12 TEN28 LV13 NYJ29 NO14 KC30 NYG15 DET31 CHI16 BAL32
Full Rankings: Fantasy Strength of Schedule for Weeks 15-17
TB1 DEN17 NO2 LAR18 HOU3 CIN19 NYJ4 CHI20 SEA5 JAC21 CAR6 PIT22 NYG7 MIA23 SF8 MIN24 TEN9 WAS25 PHI10 DET26 ATL11 NE27 DAL12 BUF28 KC13 LAC29 IND14 CLE30 BAL15 LV31 ARI16 GB32
Still here? Cool! You’ll also benefit from the in-season version of the Fantasy Strength of Schedule rankings, exclusively on SportsLine. Each week, I update the database and reveal which players have favorable or unfavorable matchups down the line. It’s a cheat code for trades. Sign up now (or whenever) and use the promo code DAVE for a special deal on your first month, plus you can cancel anytime.