Destructive winds and heavy rain are hitting large swathes of the New South Wales coast with authorities warning the situation will deteriorate over the next 24 hours.
Some areas received a month’s worth of rain in one day while others recorded winds above 100km/h as a vigorous coastal low continued to intensify on Tuesday afternoon.
The system was expected to be “more intense and much sharper” than the weather event that caused flooding in May across the Hunter region and mid-north coast, the State Emergency Service (SES) northern zone commander, Chief Supt Andrew Cribb, said.
“We’re not out of the woods yet,” he told reporters.
The NSW emergency services minister, Jihad Dib, said the “complex and large system” stretched from the mid-north coast down to Bega.
“It may seem pretty bad 1751346080, but the terrible thing is that the situation is going to worsen over the course of the next 24 hours, particularly later this afternoon and into the evening [and] tomorrow,” Dib told reporters. “So once again, we’re asking people to be as prepared as they possibly can be.”
The SES advised people along the Sydney coastline from Collaroy to Bulli to “stay indoors” due to damaging and destructive winds. A similar warning was in place for residents in Jervis Bay, Ulladulla and Batemans Bay with the additional risk of heavy rainfall.
The rapidly deepening system reached the NSW coast and was slowly tracking southwards.
The SES had deployed vehicles, helicopters and personnel to areas likely to be heavily affected.
The service had responded to more than 600 incidents since Monday morning and had received more than 900 calls to the state operations centre, a spokesperson said.
“We’re seeing a lot of debris and trees down, requests for sandbags and also leaking roofs,” they said.
The bureau had classified the system as a “vigorous coastal low” – not an “east coast low” or “bomb cyclone”, as some reported.
Bureau meteorologist Helen Reid said the current weather system was more mobile than an east coast low.
While the low-pressure system early on Tuesday had some similarities, there were some important differences in physical characteristics, duration and moisture, she said.
A severe weather warning was in place for people in the mid-north coast, metropolitan, northern tablelands and parts of the northern rivers, Hunter, Illawarra, south coast, central tablelands and north west slopes and plains districts.
Weather warnings were issued for Taree, Newcastle, Gosford, Sydney, Wollongong and Port Macquarie.
The mid-north coast region was an area of concern for emergency services because the soil was still saturated from the May floods.
Reid said the wind and rain were likely to increase into Tuesday afternoon and overnight.
With the rain continuing, some places along the coast could record more than 100mm and “even a couple that might get up to the 200mm mark”, Reid said.
Several places received a month’s worth of rain. By 7.30am on Tuesday, Jervis Bay had recorded 109mm, Currarong 85mm and Williamtown 70mm. Several places in the northern rivers had already seen 40mm of rainfall, she said.
The bureau was also warning of destructive winds averaging 60-70km/h, with peak gusts of up to 125km/h possible.
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By Tuesday mid-morning, wind speeds of 113km/h were recorded at Wattamolla south of Sydney.
“Winds could bring down trees or tree limbs, lead to dangerous driving conditions due to crosswinds or debris being thrown across the roads, and lead to power outages and possible damage to cars and property,” Reid said.
Conditions were expected to be treacherous on the water from Seal Rocks to Batemans Bay, with the potential for waves up to seven metres. The surf could cause coastal erosion and possible inundation of low-lying areas along the eastern foreshore.
Damaging surf was also forecast for an area of coastline from Forster to Moruya Heads, including parts of the Hunter, metropolitan, Illawarra, south coast and mid-north coast districts. Conditions could lead to coastal erosion and damage to coastal infrastructure.
Widespread heavy rainfall could cause flooding, although there was some uncertainty over the exact location and timing of the heaviest falls.
“The rain will be very rapid, it will be heavy, it will be short and sharp,” said SES deputy commissioner Debbie Platz. “We do expect this system will cause potential riverine flooding from minor to moderate in some catchments.”
Catchments likely to be affected included: Wallis Lake, the Myall River, Wollombi Brook and the Lower Hunter River, the Upper Nepean River, Hawkesbury and Lower Nepean rivers, Upper Coxs River, the Colo River, Macdonald River, northern Sydney, southern Sydney, the Parramatta River, the Cooks River, Georges and Woronora rivers, Illawarra coast, St Georges basin and the Snowy River.
Platz reminded people not to drive into flood waters. “A vehicle can move in about 10cm of water and be washed away depending on the intensity and flow of that water system,” she said.
Warragamba Dam was 98% full and was expected to spill in the coming days based on forecast rainfall, WaterNSW said in a social media post.
Transport for NSW urged public transport users, motorists and boaters to be prepared.
A spokesperson for Sydney airport said flight schedules could be affected. “We recommend passengers check with their airline regarding the status of their flight.”
Airservices Australia said aircraft movements had been reduced on Tuesday morning and it was working to manage the impact of severe weather conditions in Sydney.
The SES urged people to be vigilant.
“We’ve been asking people to prepare their homes and properties since last week and now it really is too late to be outside in the weather,” a spokesperson said.
The bureau’s Reid said: “On Wednesday, the focus for the rain will shift further south. Scattered showers and rain areas will still impact the east coast, between the mid-north coast to the Victorian border, but the heavier falls will be focused through the Illawarra and the northern parts of the southern coastal district.”
– with Australian Associated Press