Mansur Abubakar
BBC News, Abuja
AFP via Getty/Reuters
Can Peter Obi (left) and Atiku Abubakar (right) work together now?
Nigeria’s two main opposition leaders have joined a new political party to challenge President BolaTinubu and his ruling party in the next election.
Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have chosen the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their new political home after breaking away from their respective parties – the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).
This is one of the biggest shake-ups in Nigerian politics since the end of military rule in 1999.
Some political heavyweights from Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) party have also thrown their weight behind the formation.
Why have they joined forces?
The announcement is the culmination of a series of talks between the leaders to put up a united front in the 2027 election, rather than splitting their vote.
Tinubu won the 2023 election with just 37% of the vote after opposition supporters were divided between Abubakar who got 29%, and Obi with 25%.
Obi had broken away from the PDP after the party chose Abubakar as its presidential candidate.
At their unveiling with the ADC, interim chairman David Mark said it was an attempt to save the country’s democracy and to stop Nigeria from becoming a one-party state.
Both the PDP and LP are also battling internal crises which some believe were instigated by external forces.
Analyst Shehu Iliyasu said Abubakar and Obi are learning the lessons of the last election.
“Both Atiku [Abubakar] and Obi felt they came so close in 2023 and would have maybe won on a joint ticket so they want to amend their mistake by working together this time around,” he told the BBC.
Who else is in the ADC?
Getty Images
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar is expected to run for president again in 2027
Tinubu’s biggest challengers in the last elections, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are the face of the coalition.
Although there’s a long way to go before candidates are officially announced, political commentators are predicting that 78-year-old Abubakar will have another shot at the presidency – it would be his fifth attempt – with former Anambra governor Obi, 63, as his vice-presidential pick.
Other political heavyweights in the coalition include former Senate President David Mark, who like Atiku is leaving the PDP, former Tinubu ally turned foe Nasir El-Rufai and powerful minister in the last dispensation Rotimi Amaechi.
Is the ADC a new party?
No. The politicians are joining an already existing party which has an acronym closer to the All Democratic Alliance (ADA) they wanted to register.
The party was originally named Alliance for Democratic Change when it was formed in 2005, but it was renamed the African Democratic Congress by the time the party was registered with the Nigerian Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec).
The ADC’s Jamilu Danladi said they were sceptical of getting ADA ready in time and that is why they instead went for the ADC.
Its candidate Dumebi Kachikwu came fifth in the last presidential election and it currently has two members of parliament in the lower chamber.
What are their chances in 2027?
Analyst Ben Kenneth say he believes the coalition has a better chance of defeating Tinubu than last time.
“If you look at what Atiku and Obi got in the last election, it’s clear to see that they would’ve won assuming they worked together, so it’s a good thing they have realised they need each other,” he noted.
However, another analyst Sani Hamisu feels 73-year-old Tinubu has a better chance now than in 2023.
“In Nigeria and Africa, when a leader is in office seeking a second term, he hardly loses, it is very rare and that’s why I feel Tinubu has a better chance now than when he wasn’t in office in 2019,” he said.
Is the ruling party worried?
The ruling party says it is not bothered in the least by the coalition which it does not see as a real threat.
Acting chairman Ali Bukar Dalori told BBC Hausa the coalition would have no impact on the APC.
“Nobody is talking about a coalition except in Abuja. Even in Abuja, they are in a hotel, and when they are defeated in elections, they will leave the country,” he said.
What are the main political parties saying?
The country’s biggest opposition party, the PDP had since ruled out joining the coalition, preferring to face the APC on its own.
The Labour Party also called on its supporters to remain focused and resolute behind the party, denying any plans to join a coalition.
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