Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season is right around the corner, with the action beginning Thursday, Sept. 4 between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. That means there are plenty of anytime touchdown scorer bets to be made for the loaded 16-game Week 1 slate.
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free.
Best anytime touchdown bets
We track the percentage of simulations that each player scores a rushing, receiving, punt return, kickoff return, interception return or fumble return touchdown. We then compare that to the consensus betting line’s implied percentage and look for the ones where our percentage is at least as good as those odds.
We DON’T rely on straight betting value based on SIM% – ODDS%. We are not robots. We feel, we bleed, we love football.
We select our favorite bets based on situational factors, relevant history, and BEST PRICE. If we have a 58% forecast and every major book has -135 to -145, we may not have a ton of value, but perhaps our forecast assumes the player’s backup is active, but he’s highly questionable. We know if that backup is inactive our percentage jumps to 67%. We’ll pounce on that action at the best price at the time of publishing (-135 in this example).
Kyren Williams -115, FanDuel
The -115 implies 53.5%, and that is the best on our latest board. This presents a TON, TON, TON of value over DraftKings’ -165 or ESPN’s -190! Our sims have Williams at the top of the list at 87%.
Don’t overthink this. Williams has 31 rushing + receiving touchdowns over his last two seasons (28 games). The Rams gave him a big contract, showing they fully intend on keeping him as the primary workhorse RB. Sorry, Blake Corum. Matthew Stafford should be playing, which is good for the Rams to get the ball near the goal line. But with Stafford’s age and bad back, he’s not going to be doing an tush pushes or goal-line scrambling. Ninety percent of the Rams’ rushing TDs are going to be by Williams, who has accounted for 85% of this team’s rushing TDs when he plays over his entire career.
MATCHUPPLAYERYES ATDPROJLAR HOUKyren Williams-115, 53.5%0.87CIN @CLEJa`Marr Chase-135, 57.4%0.79GB DETJosh Jacobs-185, 64.9%0.75PHI DALSaquon Barkley-175, 63.6%0.75PHI DALJalen Hurts-135, 57.4%0.72ATL TBBijan Robinson-220, 68.8%0.71BAL @BUFDerrick Henry-150, 60%0.71CIN @CLEChase Brown-170, 63%0.67DET @GBJahmyr Gibbs-115, 53.5%0.66CIN @CLETee Higgins+125, 44.4%0.62PHI DALA.J. Brown+160, 38.5%0.62BUF BALJames Cook-110, 52.4%0.61PHI DALDeVonta Smith+185, 35.1%0.61KC LAC(N)Xavier Worthy+130, 43.5%0.59LAR HOUDavante Adams+150, 40%0.56BUF BALJosh Allen-115, 53.5%0.52DEN TENCourtland Sutton+115, 46.5%0.52DEN TENRJ Harvey+160, 38.5%0.52ARI @NOMarvin Harrison Jr.+135, 42.6%0.51HOU @LARNico Collins+130, 43.5%0.49BAL @BUFMark Andrews+190, 34.5%0.47ATL TBDrake London+135, 42.6%0.46DEN TENMarvin Mims+260, 27.8%0.46DET @GBAmon-Ra St. Brown+130, 43.5%0.45CHI MINDJ Moore+160, 38.5%0.43CLE CINJerome Ford+145, 40.8%0.43HOU @LARNick Chubb+160, 38.5%0.43CHI MINRoschon Johnson+150, 40%0.42LAC KC(N)Ladd McConkey+145, 40.8%0.42BAL @BUFRashod Bateman+230, 30.3%0.41CLE CINDavid Njoku+250, 28.6%0.41MIN @CHIJalen Nailor+470, 17.5%0.4
Tee Higgins +130, bet365
Most books have this at +125, so you might as well grab the +5 extra money-line units. If you can combine that with a nice promo or deposit bonus, you are in business.
While we technically have even more value on Ja’Marr Chase, I personally love getting plus money on a bet that our model has hitting well over 50% of the time. I also like when the oddsmakers are being lazy. In this case, the odds-implied 43% range is directly in line with Higgins’ career 39% Over rate (29-45 Over).
But 2024 was a different story with Higgins going 7-5 Over and, most importantly, 6-2 down the stretch. The Bengals are going to be in shootouts all season long. Joe Flacco is going to let it rip for Cleveland. Cincinnati is tired of starting each season with an abysmal opening week offensive dud. The Bengals played Joe Burrow a lot in the preseason to ensure a fast start.
A.J. Brown +165, Caesars
This line is considerably better than the +140 ESPN is offering and way better than the +123 at BetRivers.
Like with Higgins, we are getting plus money on a line that we have hitting well over 50%. Philadelphia actually started last season kind of slow, especially in the passing game. Brown only had one touchdown in a seven-game stretch. But Philly’s triumphant close to the season started with Brown scoring in five of his last seven games despite only having three, six and three receptions in three of the games. In the two Unders, he only had two and one reception.
For his career, Brown has scored a TD in more than 50% of his home games (less than 40% on the road). The Eagles are running it back offensively and are looking to start the season as they ended it. Our model is also much higher on Jalen Hurts’ pass TD than the odds imply with a nearly two passing touchdown projection. Who knows if Micah Parsons will be there, and the Cowboys’ defense could be a mess.
Xavier Worthy +140, Caesars
I love when players are priced like they are “normal” for their position. In this case, Worthy as a WR being priced primarily based on what percentage of passing TDs they can expect then adjusted for team total. Worthy scored a receiving touchdown in 42% of his games last season (including playoffs), which is what +140 implies. But Andy Reid from Day 1 also schemed how to use Worthy’s speed to score three rushing touchdowns. When you throw in that Rashee Rice accepted a six-game suspension, Hollywood Brown has not been 100% in years and Worthy’s rushing touchdown potential, this is a great bet.
Mark Andrews +190 Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics
Wow, Caesars really wants your ATD action as they once again are offering the best price, though they are in a tie with FanDuel and Fanatics.
Andrews Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns is one of my favorite season futures. Isaiah Likely was not put on IR, but the expectation is he’ll miss at least Week 1. But even with Likely playing last season, Andrews crushed this once he got healthy, scoring in 10 of his final 12 regular season games.
This line is not “YES Catch a 2-point Conversion to Send the Game to OT in Icy Playoff Conditions in Buffalo.” It is a simple ATD as Andrews is TE1 and Lamar Jackson’s favorite target. Jackson is also notorious for trying to get the ball to certain players when they are getting grief. In his 2019 MVP season, Jackson made it a point to get the ball to Seth Roberts since he hadn’t scored a touchdown yet that season. Recently, Jackson talked about getting the ball to third-string tight Charlie Kolar a game or two before Kolar finally scored.
Heck, even last season, Jackson was angry that so many thought Andrews was “washed” that he made it a point to get the ball to Andrews. After what happened in the playoffs, Andrews ATD is a lock.
These are just a fraction of our best bets all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team’s personal best bets for every NFL game.