The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. Our NFL model simulates each game thousands of times and has performed extremely well on top rated spread, total and money line picks, going 72-47, 60.5% +18.5 units over the last three seasons. Two things may jump out at you: 1, >60% is a lot better than what I am hitting and 2, that’s not a lot of picks.
Our model is different than most. We don’t try to accurately forecast who is going to cover. Over two decades, we have reverse engineered oddsmakers’ models which has resulted in 85-90% of our projections being virtually identical to the oddsmaker’s lines (main markets and props). When sportsbooks’ lines differ from ours, we know they are likely manipulating a line to either sucker the public or minimize risk. And more often than not, betting the line that is statistically sound is the better side. If you love the NFL as much as we do, new users can get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly at DraftKings:
Editor’s Note: These power rankings were initially published before news broke that star Los Angeles Chargers offensive tackle Rashawn Slater is likely to miss all of 2025 with a knee injury. There is an updated set of Chargers rankings and analysis later in this article.
Using the Model for Gambling Focused Power Rankings
In our Week 1 projections on SportsLine, there are only three good spread or money line betting values. This is a strong indicator that our model’s overall ‘opinion’ of the 32 NFL teams is in line with the oddsmakers’ consensus. In order to generate our power rankings, we take our model one step further. We simulate every team vs every other team on a neutral field based on the roster that they’d have at the time of the Super Bowl. The SIM WIN% below is the average percentage of simulations each team has won versus the 31 other teams. This allows us to rank teams objectively without the bias that strength of schedule can have when projecting win totals, playoff% and Super Bowl chances.
Tier 1: Top Contenders
There are five teams who are winning 66% or more neutral field simulations and have a Super Bowl% that is more than double what the 3% a team should have on average (100% divided by 32 teams). The only possible surprise entry are the Green Bay Packers, who finished third in their own division. But that’s exactly the point of power rankings. The Packers are in the brutally tough NFC North, but they had a +122 point differential despite dealing with Jordan Love and wide receiver injuries. Their +122 was better than division winners, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Houston.
The other surprise is the absence of the three-time defending AFC champions Kansas City Chiefs. We’ll address them below in Tier 2.
All but Detroit are good betting values to win the Super Bowl, but the best is the Buffalo Bills at +700 on FanDuel. You may be wondering why their SB% is so high despite being third in this tier and well behind Baltimore in SIM WIN%. The Bills have the inside track for the No. 1 seed because they are the only AFC East team with a projection to win over 50% of their games and they get to play all of their toughest opponents at home, including Baltimore. They get the Chiefs, Bucs, Bengals and Eagles at home. We have their No. 1 seed% at 61% and that 100% guarantee of advancing past the Wild Card round is a huge advantage over the 65 to 75% chance a No. 2 seed Baltimore would have of advancing. This forecast could swing massively if Baltimore upsets Buffalo on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. You can bet the NFL now at DraftKings:
The other top bet from this top tier is the Eagles to win the NFC East at -130, 56.5% on DraftKings. Washington is a very good team but benefited massively from a soft 2024 schedule. They only played five games versus playoff teams in the regular season (went 1-4) and played 6 games versus teams that won five or fewer games. The only 2025 opponent with a win total implying maybe five wins are the Giants. The Eagles are loaded and should be as good as last season — they will cruise to the division win.
Tier 2: Missing a Piece
Note: The Chargers, who are listed in this tier, suffered a big blow on Aug. 7 when it was reported that offensive tackle Rashawn Slater will miss all of 2025 with a knee injury. This analysis was published before that news broke, and there’s an updated Chargers-specific section after this one to reflect Slater’s injury.
These teams should make the playoffs and no one would be surprised to see them in the conference championship game. It would be surprising to see them be in both their conference championship game and the Super Bowl. Clearly, the Chiefs not being Tier 1 is the biggest surprise. We would bet them to win under 11.5 games at -120 on DraftKings. The most impressive thing about the Chiefs is their amazing success the last three seasons despite not being statistically great. Their +59 point differential was fifth in the AFC and 11th in the league in 2024. Patrick Mahomes is unbelievably clutch but is no longer a 5,000-yard, 40-touchdown passer. Travis Kelce is getting older and the team really cannot run the ball because of Isiah Pacheco’s injury. The Chargers are not a good playoff team, but they are an excellent regular season team and expect the Chiefs win total to reflect their underlying statistical performance. The Broncos are improving. The Raiders massively upgraded at quarterback and running back, so there isn’t a slouch in the division.
The best bet in this tier is Tampa Bay to win the NFC South at +105 on FanDuel. Their +117 point differential in 2024 was 151 points (8.9 pts per game) better than Atlanta (second in the division). Assuming Baker Mayfield’s training camp injury doesn’t impact the regular season, the offense should be even better with Bucky Irving clearly entrenched at running back, Chris Godwin back from injury and first-round pick Emeka Egbuka as wide receiver. The thing that limits Tampa Bay’s ceiling is they commit more turnovers than opponents and their pass defense doesn’t travel. They allowed around 50 more passing yards per game on the road versus at home.
The other team the model is not buying as much as most are the San Francisco 49ers. There is too much faith in Christian McCaffrey being able to recapture his 2023 form coming off a serious injury. Get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager when you bet football at FanDuel:
Rashawn Slater Update (Aug. 7, 6:45 p.m. ET)
Slater is widely considered to be the best or second-best left tackle in the NFL and just signed a massive extension. The power rankings and analysis above was done prior to his injury. The Chargers were a solid Tier 2 team ranked 10th in the league. With Slater having no chance of returning by the playoffs, the Chargers are now 14th in the power rankings. Their stock is down, but not worthless by any means. FanDuel has dropped their playoff odds to just -114, 53.3% which means we still have a solid value on them even with their playoff chances dropping by 8 percentage points.
LA CHARGERSWINSWIN%DIVISIONPLAYOFFCONFCHAMPBefore Slater Injury9.857.6%34.1%69.7%6.0%2.4%After Slater Injury9.354.7%27.6%61.7%3.9%1.5%Difference-0.5-2.9%-6.5%-8.0%-2.1%-0.9%
Tier 3: Playoff Ceiling
The best bet for the teams whose ceiling is making the playoffs is the Seahawks winning over 7.5 (-130 FanDuel). The model has enough faith Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp can be at least 90% as productive as Geno Smith and D.K. Metcalf were. Head coach Mike Macdonald entering his second year is also a positive for the Seahawks. The 49ers being overrated and Seahawks being underrated results in our model picking the Seahawks outright to win in Week 1.
Tier 4: Bet Their Win Totals
Our model does not see these squads as playoff teams despite most of them having positive momentum from the offseason. There are some good betting values. For example, Justin Fields (and backup Tyrod Taylor) should vastly improve the Jets’ running game and going from 31st to average or potentially top third can result in a huge improvement offensively and defensively (improved time of possession, better starting field position for defense). We really like the Jets to win over 5.5 (-130 bet365). Bet it here and get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the code CBSBET365:
Many notable Patriots fans think this team can contend this year. The model likes Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel and has the team improving their win total by 50%! But that’s still just a 6-win team and not a real contender. This is a quarterabck driven league and 99% of people would consider Maye to be maybe the eighth best QB in the AFC. New England’s defense allowed 24.5 pts per game (11th-most in the league) last season despite playing a lot of bad offenses.
The Saints are interesting because they are the worst team in the league if schedules were all the same, but with the second easiest schedule in the league (model rankings), a solid defense, good weapons and an offensive minded head coach, they could be a Tyler Shough surprisingly efficient performance away from winning seven games.