Free agency officially kicked off on Monday evening, but within a few hours many of the biggest moves had already been made. At this point, most rosters are beginning to take shape and, barring a surprise, we have an idea of what most teams are broadly up to.
Of course, “most” isn’t “all.” Even as the deals are flying, there are a few teams with serious questions still lingering. So let’s take a look at some of those. Do they have big moves coming? Do we know what they’re trying to accomplish? And is there even enough talent left to go around for these teams?
Let’s start with the obvious.
1. What is the Lakers’ plan?
If LeBron James was concerned about the state of the Lakers on Sunday, Monday couldn’t have done much to help. Dorian Finney-Smith, the key wing acquisition from last season who sparked the team’s midseason turnaround, agreed to join the Houston Rockets on a four-year deal. Replacing him? Younger wing Jake LaRavia, a high-upside developmental swing, but certainly not a proven player.
Center has been a gaping hole for the Lakers ever since they dealt Anthony Davis, but the big-man market boomed on Monday. Clint Capela, Brook Lopez and Luke Kornet have all agreed to sign new deals at price points the Lakers were unlikely to match. At this point, it’s probably Deandre Ayton or bust for the Lakers at center.
It’s not clear where their backup is going to come from. They have around $8 million left in their midlevel exception that will presumably go to a center (hopefully Ayton), and they have the $5.1 million biannual exception to throw at another free agent — but these aren’t exactly significant resources. Paths to significant improvement through free agency are dwindling.
The Lakers, by all accounts, are prioritizing Luka Dončić’s timeline. They have their eye on max cap space in 2027, when James will likely be retired. They’ll seemingly be picky about trading future draft capital as they hope to set themselves up to add a star in the near future. None of this sounds all that appealing to a legendary 40-year-old.
For now, there doesn’t appear to be any momentum towards a trade. James has a no-trade clause, so he could control the process if they were to go down that path. But if James hopes to compete for a championship this season, it’s hard to believe it’s going to happen with the Lakers based on the offseason they’re having.
2. Who’s playing center for the Celtics?
The Celtics came into this offseason needing to duck the second apron. They’ve done so, but that doesn’t mean they’ve maintained a viable roster in the aftermath. Right now, it really isn’t clear who’s going to play center in Boston next season.
They had seemingly hoped to shed more money in an effort to potentially keep either Luke Kornet or Al Horford. Thus far, they’ve failed to do so, and Kornet got a four-year deal in San Antonio. The $10 million or so per year he’ll get is way out of Boston’s price range, and while Horford’s demands aren’t clear, he’s attracting interest from basically every contender with money to spend.
Let’s say Horford leaves. Neemias Queta gave them decent rotation minutes last year, but he’s certainly not a starter. Xavier Tillman played real minutes in Memphis, but he’s been relegated to bench duty in Boston. Luka Garza, whom they added on Monday, has played fewer than 1,000 minutes in four seasons. The Celtics aren’t in championship-or-bust mode next season with Jayson Tatum injured, but if they planned to tank, they would have moved Derrick White or Jaylen Brown by now. They seem to want to be reasonably competitive, and that’s going to mean finding a starting-level center somewhere.
3. How will Denver use its newfound cap flexibility?
The surface-level explanation for Denver’s decision to trade Michael Porter Jr. for Cam Johnson was that Johnson is a better and more reliable player at this stage than Porter is. That’s true in itself. Johnson is a better creator and doesn’t come with the same level of injury concern as Porter, whose back is scary as a long-term investment.
But the true motivation for the deal was financial. Denver saves about $17 million in the trade, and that opens up all sorts of other roster-building avenues for the Nuggets. Most notably, they’ll likely use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception to sign a free agent or two, and they could also acquire a player through a sign-and-trade or potentially just use the $16.8 million trade exception the deal created to land another veteran.
Denver’s starting lineup has always been fine. Johnson should have no trouble sliding in for Porter. But now, the Nuggets have the resources to really rebuild the bench for the first time in years. They started with a nice minimum addition of Bruce Brown, a 2023 champion for them, and there’s plenty more work to be done.
4. How expensive are the Pacers willing to get?
In the flurry of re-signings that came on Saturday and Sunday, it was somewhat surprising not to see Myles Turner re-up with the Pacers relatively quickly. Naz Reid got five years and $125 million from the Minnesota Timberwolves, and they likely command similar numbers. Turner is the longest-tenured Pacer. They know what they have in him. So what’s going on here?
If there’s a gap between the two sides, it likely relates to Indiana’s payroll. The Pacers were reportedly willing to pay the luxury tax for the first time in 20 years in order to keep Turner, but that reporting came during the NBA Finals. Tyrese Haliburton’s Achilles tear might have changed things. The Pacers can’t rely on a deep playoff run to generate significant gate revenue anymore. Perhaps they’ve reconsidered their budget for next season.
If so, that creates all sorts of questions. Is Turner gettable in a sign-and-trade? If so, several teams would surely be interested. There just aren’t many big men like him who can both protect the basket and make 3-pointers. More likely, the Pacers would hope to move off of another role player in order to duck the tax while keeping Turner. Could someone steal, say, T.J. McConnell? What about Obi Toppin or Bennedict Mathurin? The Pacers made the Finals for a reason. They have a lot of good players and all of them are paid appropriately. If they’re thinking of ducking the tax, someone valuable is going to become available.
It’s been a slow start to free agency for Golden State, which is pretty surprising given the resources at its disposal. The Warriors have access to the full midlevel exception if they want it. They also have some of their own free agents to re-sign, though they’ve lost Kevon Looney to New Orleans. Before any of that, though, they need an idea of what they’re going to do with Jonathan Kuminga.
The former No. 7 pick is a restricted free agent. There is no cap space for him to sign into unless Brooklyn decides it is interested, so if he’s going to get paid, it will have to be by the Warriors or through a sign-and-trade. The Warriors would likely be eager to participate. Kuminga is a chip they could use to add a significant piece, and given the fit concerns with him next to Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green, they’re likely happy to break up anyway.
Miami has reportedly been interested in the past. It’d even be worth checking in with Indiana on the Turner front. The Warriors badly need a center who can shoot with Butler and Green in place, and Deandre Ayton — who Indiana tried to sign to replace Turner in 2022 — is available for the Pacers to potentially swipe as a Turner replacement this time around.
Sign-and-trades are complicated from a cap perspective. They create a first-apron hard cap and are difficult to execute from a salary-matching perspective because of an archaic rule called base-year compensation. Designing one that makes sense takes time. It was always unlikely that Golden State would be able to do it on the first night of free agency. But this is the story to watch for the Warriors right now. If they make a big move, Kuminga will likely be involved.