The MLB trade season is heading to the homestretch!
While this year’s deals have been a bit slow to develop, there have been intriguing acquisitions, with the Seattle Mariners landing Josh Naylor and the New York Yankees getting Ryan McMahon headlining the early moves.
Now, with less than 48 hours remaining to deal before the 6 p.m. ET deadline arrives Thursday, conversations involving big names, including Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr., continue to circulate through the industry.
Which players will move in the final days? Which teams will go all-in to add the best available players? And which trades will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season? We enlisted ESPN MLB insiders Buster Olney and Jeff Passan to offer their latest intel as the deadline nears.
What are you hearing that could keep things moving in the final hours?
Olney: The New York Mets’ effort to get better. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the epicenter of the teams looking to part with players, but between now and the deadline, the Mets might be the most aggressive club adding players, looking for a starter who could pitch Game 1, 2 or 3 of a postseason series. Relief pitching and an outfielder — perhaps Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles — are also among their needs.
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Passan: The number of teams that want high-leverage relief pitchers — and the relative paucity of them on the market. St. Louis’ Ryan Helsley is the top rental option. And then there is the group of controllable arms who could move but don’t have to: Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, Minnesota’s Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, and Tampa Bay’s Pete Fairbanks.
Considering the number of teams that desire impact relief help — the Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, both New York teams and the Los Angeles Dodgers — the ones that have it are understandably holding out for a strong return. There are second- and third-tier relievers, sure, but there isn’t enough elite supply for the demand that exists. Which is why San Diego is dangling Robert Suarez, San Francisco is fielding calls on its back-end guys, and even the A’s could conceivably get an offer they can’t refuse for Mason Miller.
Which deal do you think will have the biggest impact on the rest of the season?
Olney: Whichever late-inning reliever is acquired by the Philadelphia Phillies — whether it be Ryan Helsley or Griffin Jax or someone else — Rob Thomson will have to rely on that pitcher heading into the postseason. Jose Alvarado is sidelined in October because of his PED suspension.
Passan: It all depends on teams’ willingness to move players with multiple years of control. The market of impending free agents ranges somewhere between meh and ugh. But if Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore were to go? Duran or Jax? Steven Kwan? All are possible. The cost, at this point, is prohibitive, but the deadline does odd things to front offices. Discomfort can be the most underrated tool at a deadline.
We’ve seen varying activity levels from the World Series favorites. What are you hearing about the last-minute plans for the division leaders?
Passan: The Blue Jays want at least one more reliever after getting Seranthony Dominguez from the Orioles. Detroit wants to shore up the back end of its bullpen and isn’t against nibbling for value on bigger pieces. The Astros want a starting pitcher. The New York Mets will get an arm and a center-field bat. The Brewers won’t do much, unless value falls into their laps. The Dodgers will consider bigger names, with a reliever the top priority.
Olney: In the American League, the World Series favorite means … everybody. The league seeming to be so wide open is driving a lot of the enthusiasm for the Mariners, Texas Rangers and even the Yankees. You can draw up a reasonable path to the World Series for about seven teams in the AL, and this might well fuel some bold moves in the last hours before the deadline.
The wild-card races are tightening. What are you hearing the Chicago Cubs, Phillies, Yankees and Mariners could do next as they try to keep their grip on the top spots?
Olney: The Cubs would love to add a front-line starting pitcher, someone who could effectively replace Justin Steele in their rotation. But maybe more than any team, they could be hamstrung by how thin the market is unless they value the cost of acquiring Joe Ryan or Cease or if they work something out for Merrill Kelly.
The Yankees are focused on adding bullpen help and a right-handed hitting outfielder, such as Harrison Bader. The Phillies need a high-end bullpen pitcher but are also in the mix for Luis Robert Jr. And the Mariners are going to do something for their bullpen — plus, some rival execs still view them as the favorite to land Eugenio Suarez.
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Passan: Shane Bieber is another option for the Cubs. The Phillies are among the most aggressive teams in the relief market and will add an arm. The Yankees aren’t as gung ho as they were, say, two weeks ago, but they’re going to backfill with at least one solid reliever.
The Mariners are the deadline wild card, though. They’ve got a cadre of top 100-caliber prospects — eight in all — and the question they’ll ask themselves is: Are we comfortable moving someone like Harry Ford for a rental like Suarez? To this point, the answer has been no. But weird things happen in the final 40 hours before a deadline. And a team really going for it — the Mariners want a bullpen arm, too — is far from the worst thing, particularly when said team has never even made the World Series.
Who are some other available players you are hearing discussed most by front offices?
Passan: Wednesday is the day that teams are hoping to see the asks in return for controllable players come down. If they don’t, those teams will start pivoting to the rental market, understanding that it’s going to be flooded and looking to strike rather than be put in a panicky position over the final 12 hours before the deadline. The big names — Eugenio Suarez, Merrill Kelly, Zac Gallen, Luis Robert Jr., Bednar, Helsley, Bieber — have plenty of traction, and most, if not all, will go.
Olney: I’d guess that 75% of the players moved between now and the deadline will be relievers. This will be like a game of musical chairs, as front offices sort through options such as the Minnesota Twins’ Danny Coulombe and Griffin Jax, the Rays’ Pete Fairbanks, the Rockies’ Seth Halvorsen, etc. All of the contenders are looking to add relievers, and they are looking at the same players.
Which other teams are you hearing could be the most active before the deadline arrives?
Olney: The Tampa Bay Rays and Diamondbacks figure to be the most prominent to deal players, and the San Diego Padres will do something to augment their offense and try to get back into the October dance.
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Passan: The Orioles, even after moving Dominguez and Gregory Soto, have a huge inventory. The D-backs will be busy. The Marlins, with Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera and a group of relievers, could play a big role. The Twins have lots to offer. Beyond Duran and Jax, left-hander Coulombe and right-hander Brock Stewart are two relievers with markets, and super-utility man Willi Castro could go, too. The Pirates will be busy. And the Guardians hold a lot of cards with Kwan and Bieber.
What else are you hearing ahead of the deadline?
Olney: A lot of frustration because teams looking to trade prominent players — knowing this year’s market — are holding their asking prices high, and the teams who want to add are trying to wait them out. “It’s a slow-moving market,” one exec said Tuesday night. But at some point, rest assured, the dam will break, and the deals — mostly for relievers — will happen fast and furious.
Passan: The Padres, as always, are toying with doing something big. The Twins continue to have exceptionally high asks on their relief arms. The chance of the Guardians moving Kwan is higher than teams believed a week ago. The Phillies and Mets are being very aggressive. Some teams are looking at players controlled through 2027 and factoring in the possibility that labor discord could significantly impact that season. And the lack of star power that could move will be made up for by the volume of deals.