FTSE 100 hits record high as trade war fears ease
Newsflash: Britain’s blue-chip stock index has hit a new alltime high, as investors shrug off the threat of Donald Trump’s trade wars.
Update: The FTSE 100 index has risen by as much as 80 points, or 0.9%, to a fresh record peak of 8947.84 points, over the previous record of 8908.82 set in March.
Mining stocks are leading the rally today, signalling that traders are not worried that Trump’s blizzard of tariffs will cause a global recession, despite new tariffs such as the 50% imposed on US copper imports and on imports from Brazil.
Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, says investors are in an “ebullient summer mood”, adding:
Perhaps most notable is the market’s apparent indifference to escalating trade tensions. Trump’s 50 percent tariff on copper imports and threats toward Brazil triggered little reaction. Many now view such announcements as political posturing, summed up by TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out.
So far this year, the FTSE 100 index has surged by over 9%. It has benefitted from a range of factors this year, including the rotation out of US assets as investors have feared that Donald Trump’s trade war would hurt America’s economy.
Relief that the UK struck an early trade deal with the US has also helped make the London market attractive.
Precious metals producer Fresnillo has been the top-performing FTSE 100 stock so far this year; it has more than doubled (+140% since 1 January), as the prices of both gold and silver have risen.
British defence companies Babcock (+117% year-to-date)and BAE Systems (+63% ytd) have also both risen sharply this year, helped by expectations of a surge in defence spending as the Russia-Ukraine war has continued.
Engineering firm Rolls-Royce (+73% ytd) has also had a strong 2025.
Share
Updated at 08.37 BST
Key events
Show key events only
Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature
US jobless claims drop
Just in: US job losses remain low, new data shows, despite trade war uncertainty.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment support fell by 5,000 last week, to 227,000, the Department of Labor has reported.
Initial jobless claims fell to 227K (-5K), while continuing claims hit 1.97M — the highest since Nov 2021. Unemployment rate steady at 1.3%. Notable claim spikes in NJ, NY, IL from layoffs in education, healthcare & manufacturing. #Unemployment #JobMarket pic.twitter.com/FogjVrmSfK
— Econoday, Inc. (@Econoday) July 10, 2025
Share
Following the four arrests, an M&S spokesperson says:
“We welcome this development and thank the NCA for its diligent work on this incident.”
Share
Four people arrested after cyber-attacks on M&S, Co-op and Harrods
Four young people have been arrested for their suspected involvement in the damaging cyber-attacks against Marks & Spencer, the Co-op and Harrods, PA Media reports.
The National Crime Agency (NCA) said the individuals were arrested early on Thursday morning on suspicion of blackmail, money laundering, offences linked to the Computer Misuse Act and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.
The arrests included a 17-year-old British man from the West Midlands, 19-year-old Latvian man from the West Midlands, 19-year-old British man from London and 20-year-old British woman from Staffordshire.
All four were arrested from their home addresses and remain in custody.
It comes after investigations by NCA into attacks against the three retailers, where hackers sought ransom payments after breaking into their IT systems.
Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National Cyber Crime Unit, said:
“Since these attacks took place, specialist NCA cybercrime investigators have been working at pace and the investigation remains one of the agency’s highest priorities.
“Today’s arrests are a significant step in that investigation but our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”
Earlier this week, the chair of Marks & Spencer claimed two hacks involving “large British companies” had gone unreported in recent months.
M&S’s cyber-attack is expected to knock around £300m hit to profits, as its online ordering system was offline for around six weeks.
Share
Back in the energy sector, a former boss of Virgin Money has been lined up to chair Britain’s fourth-biggest home energy supplier.
Sky News are reporting that Dame Jayne-Anne Gadhia will become independent chair of Ovo as part of a boardroom shake-up at its parent company, succeeding Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief.
Gadhia’s appointment comes as Ovo holds merger talks with Scottish Power, one of its largest rivals.
Share
Updated at 11.59 BST
Lisa O’Carroll
The EU and the US are no closer to announcing a deal after a phone call between EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic and the US trade representative Jamieson Greer, my colleague Lisa O’Carroll in Brussels writes.
The agreement in principle is expected to be a three page document outlining headline reductions in tariffs for cars, medical devices and possibly steel, in exchange for a baseline 10% import duty on all imports from the bloc and some simplification of paperwork on food imports.
Sources say the agreement is just waiting for Trump’s sign off and that did not happen last night so the call with Greer could never have delivered the deal.
It could yet come later today but the EU is blind on Trump’s announcement intentions.
The European Commission has the power to accept the deal as it is not legally binding as it is an agreement in principle, meaning there is no need for the type of showbusiness moment granted to UK prime minister Keir Starmer when he took a call from Trump while visiting Jaguar Land Rover’s factory in England.
Share
The FTSE 100 is now up more than 1% at a new record high, up 106 points or +1.1% at 8973 points.
Victoria E Scholar, head of investment at interactive investor, says:
UK indices, from large cap to small are catching a bid alongside European bourses like the CAC 40 and the DAX, which also at an all-time high. Positive sentiment from a strong session on Wall Street with the Nasdaq closing higher by nearly 1% has carried forward to this morning’s European session.
Leading the gains on the UK blue chip index are the miners with Anglo American up over 5%, closely followed by Glencore and Rio Tinto. Commodities are fuelling the gains for the FTSE 100 with copper in the green and gold catching a bid on the back of a weaker US dollar. WPP is also helping drive the index higher as investors cheer the appointment of its new tech-savvy CEO.
Share
Updated at 10.46 BST
Optimism over the chances of a US-EU trade deal are also cheering markets, reports Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown:
‘’The Footsie is footloose, shrugging off trade worries to dance to an all-time high. Even a fresh volley of tariff letters from President Trump has failed to knock investors sentiment.
The President’s latest moves are seen as posturing, and there is high expectation that there will be plenty of negotiations to head off higher duties in the weeks ahead. Indications that the EU is edging closer to a deal with the US, with an agreement thought to be possible in a few days, has added to the positive vibes.
So, hopes are riding high that the effects on global growth won’t be as onerous as feared.
Share
UK companies among most distressed in Europe, Alvarez & Marsal finds
Less encouragingly, almost 9% of European companies are in financial distress, according to the bi-annual Alvarez & Marsal Distress Alert.
The survey also found that 32% of European companies (more than 2,500 corporates) have “fragile balance” sheets, the highest level since 2021, due to high interest rates and the struggle to generate enough operating cashflow to service debt.
Alvarez & Marsal, the professional services firm, explains:
In the UK, levels of corporate distress have fallen to 8.9% from 9.8% the year before, equating to around 250 companies. However, this remains one of the highest percentages among countries analysed.
In line with the wider European trend, the proportion of UK companies lacking balance sheet robustness has been steadily growing over the last four years, now reaching nearly one in three, or around 870 of companies analysed. This demonstrates the impact of higher interest rates and slower economic growth on companies’ ability to service their debt.
Elsewhere, Germany continues to be the most distressed market, at 11.5%, the highest level since the pandemic. The country has experienced minimal growth in recent years and is more exposed to struggling sectors like the automotive and chemicals industries. France recorded the sharpest increase in distress levels in 2024, to 10.5% from 8.1% the year before, driven by sluggish economic growth and political and fiscal challenges.
Share
Market rally shows investors ‘expect Trump to back-track’
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, points out that most markets are rallying today, saying:
Risk sentiment is buoyant on Thursday, with the exception of Brazilian markets, Europe’s main stocks indices are higher, the dollar is lower, and bond markets are clam, with UK Gilts outperforming. The FTSE 100 reached a fresh record high and is now up more than 16% since April’s low. US stock index futures are down slightly on Thursday but have picked up from their lows as risk sentiment gathers momentum.
The FTSE 100 is being led higher by miners, and the materials sector is higher by more than 3% on Thursday. Healthcare stocks are also strong across Europe. This may sound counterintuitive, President Trump has just announced tariffs on copper, and is threatening a 200% levy on pharma imports, so why are these sectors rallying?
The reason is that there has been very little concrete details about how tariffs will be applied, which is why we are seeing these sectors steal the spotlight: investors expect Trump to back-track. Thus, after heavy declines for Brazilian stocks on Wednesday they may also recover later today.
Share
The stock market is not the real economy, of course.
Out in the real world, more people are facing a cost of living squeeze.
New data from the Office for National Statistics shows that in June, 26% of adults reported that they would be unable to afford an unexpected, but necessary expense of £850.
That’s the highest proportion reported since September 2024.
In the week to 6 July 2025 compared with the previous week there were increases in:
• total Revolut debit card spending (up 2%)
• overall UK retail footfall (up 1%)
In contrast, there were decreases in the number of:
• ship visits to UK ports (down 4%)
• flights (down 3%) pic.twitter.com/gLXgG6CyrW
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 10, 2025
Initial findings from the latest Opinions and Lifestyle Survey show in June 2025, 26% of adults said they would be unable to afford an unexpected, but necessary expense of £850.
This is the highest proportion reported since September 2024.
— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) July 10, 2025
Share
The UK stock market is continues to flex its muscles and show strength, says Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, pushing the FTSE 100 to its record highs.
Investors lapped up shares in the mining, oil and pharmaceutical sectors, showing a risk-on mood.
“European markets in general continue to shrug off Donald Trump’s daily tariff updates, perhaps seeing them as noise and not facts. Trump is throwing out numbers left, right and centre, and investors have begun to dismiss anything that isn’t set in stone.
“So many of Trump’s decisions have either been rolled back, forgotten about, or kicked down the road. For investors, that means a shift in focus back to economic data and corporate news flow as key drivers for markets.
Share
Rising stock markets can encourage the US administration to do ‘dumb stuff’, warns Dario Perkins, economist at City consultancy TS Lombard.
US policy reflexivity. Stock market goes up, they start doing dumb stuff again… market can ignore that but eventually it has to affect the economy. This is a path to nowhere
— Dario Perkins (@darioperkins) July 10, 2025
Share
Stock markets might be jolted out of their trade war complacency when the damage starts showing up in economic data.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, says:
Newswires remain hectic. It’s all tariffs, tension, and chaos — but markets have an extraordinary capacity to adapt. Trade developments are quickly becoming the new normal; they no longer hammer sentiment the way they once did.
What could jolt markets is when all this starts showing up in the data — through slower growth or higher inflation. Until then, the music plays on.
Share
The current stock market rally is somewhat surprising, given the uncertainty gripping the global economy.
You might remember that shares tanked in early April after Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US trading partners, only to start recovering once they were delayed for 90 days.
That deadline has now been kicked on to 1 August, a deadline which the president insists won’t slip again (watch this space…), as it reimposes high tariffs on a swathe of countries.
And yet, shares keep rising.
Photograph: LSEG
Mohit Kumar of investment bank Jefferies says Trump’s announcements of additional tariffs on some countries was “largely ignored by the markets”.
Jefferies’s prediction is that risky assets (such as shares) will “grind higher”.
Kumar explains:
Our view remains that tariffs do cause volatility and uncertainty but should not have much of a market impact medium term. We see eventual tariffs ending between 10-15% on average. While a negative from a macro perspective, the world can live with 10-15% tariffs.
We also remain of the view that tariff revenue will be used to justify the extension of tax cuts. The negative impact from a tariff perspective, would be balanced to some extent by tax cuts.
Share
Germany’s DAX also hits new peak
Germany’s major stock index has also hit a record high this morning!
The DAX, which tracks the 40 largest companies listed in Frankfurt, is up 0.3% at 24,619 points.
The DAX has rallied by a blistering 23% so far this year, lifted by Berlin’s plans to boost government spending on areas such as defence.
US record high, Dax record high, FTSE 100 record high, bitcoin record high. Tariffs? Meh. It’s a odd world.
— Chris Beauchamp (@ChrisB_IG) July 10, 2025
Share