While Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley seemed to get all the attention for his incredible 2024 campaign, becoming the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry also thrived in his first season with his new franchise. In fact, Henry missed his second career 2,000-yard season by a mere 79 rushing yards. Barkley won a myriad of individual honors as he helped lead his team to a Super Bowl title. Henry rushed for 84 fewer yards and scored only 16.9 fewer PPR fantasy points, yet look at the difference in average draft position (ADP). Henry is the value pick.
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For those of us attempting to build 2025 fantasy football redraft teams that feature safe, durable wide receivers at the top of the first round (and beyond), there is little consideration for a running back, especially one coming off a career-high 482 touches (including playoffs). Barkley might or might not bust this season, but it is easy to feel better waiting until Round 2 for Henry, ESPN’s No. 9-ranked RB. After all, though three years older than Barkley, Henry boasts arguably the better track record. He has finished among the top five running backs in fantasy for five of the past six seasons. Barkley has achieved this twice in his career — as a rookie and last season.
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This season’s Do Draft list, like in prior versions, highlights the players I consistently target in our many mock drafts and a few “drafts that count,” focusing on value versus our standard ADP. The players who keep showing up on my teams — in leagues that will count, and otherwise — are there for a reason. We’ve been analyzing for the 2025 season since February. Perhaps time will prove it isn’t wrong to covet Barkley with your first pick in a draft, but I certainly can’t do it. I do covet Henry at his odd, unfair discount, though.
There is no precise number for how many times/seasons a player can prove skeptics wrong before we truly trust in him, but we sure seem past that point with Henry. Yeah, he has logged many carries over his nine NFL seasons, averaging 345 touches over the past three. He is 31 years old, and many of us cringe at running backs on the other side of 30. In addition, Henry does not play a large role in the passing game. But we know who Henry is. He uses his strong, powerful build to rush for a ton of yards, and he scores double-digit touchdowns every season.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy did more with his legs in 2024 but experienced a big drop-off in TD passes, from 31 in 2023 to 20 last season. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu
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Nothing against the top quarterbacks, but one good reason to fade them is because of the positional depth and the scarcity at typical flex positions. In ESPN standard leagues, there is only one starting QB slot, but you need multiple running backs and wide receivers. San Francisco 49ers signal-caller Brock Purdy kept falling outside the top 100 in nearly every mock draft with our ESPN Fantasy team, and I kept securing him. Purdy did not disappoint last season, trading in some accuracy and touchdowns for rushing numbers. In fact, he has been a top-10 QB in fantasy points per game each of the past two seasons. Why would that change in 2025? Because WR Deebo Samuel is gone? Because RB Christian McCaffrey is no sure thing? Look at San Francisco’s offense-friendly schedule. Purdy might be a top-five QB.
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We shouldn’t want Chicago Bears sophomore Caleb Williams on fantasy teams because he was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. We should covet him because he possesses many of the characteristics of an annual top-10 fantasy QB, and the organization surrounded him with proper coaching, blocking and skill players. Expect more efficiency and consistency in Year 2. Six quarterbacks went among the top 12 players in the 2024 NFL draft, and I keep securing five of them in superflex leagues (though not the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, who goes too early). Drake Maye of the New England Patriots has huge upside as a thrower and runner, and a better foundation around him. New Minnesota Vikings starter J.J. McCarthy should be excellent, too.
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For 10- and 12-team standard formats, we cannot dismiss the inherent upside for Justin Fields, who is in his first season with the New York Jets. He was the No. 6 fantasy QB in 2022, the most recent season he had a real chance for success. Fields rushed for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns for the Bears that season. The Jets really should let him do it again. I don’t view Fields as a safe, top-10 fantasy QB, even though his upside remains tantalizing, and I do like Tampa Bay Buccaneers star (yes, he is a statistical star now) Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals more. Fields is the one who slips too far in drafts.
Running backs
Despite the backfield timeshare in Detroit, David Montgomery has 2,248 yards from scrimmage and 25 rushing TDs the past two seasons. Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images
Editor’s Picks
2 Related
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If I take a WR in Round 1 or secure Henry early in Round 2, perhaps I won’t get Green Bay Packers veteran Josh Jacobs or Buccaneers sophomore Bucky Irving. But I would be fine with either one as my top RB. Jacobs saw big volume in his first season in Green Bay, and he is a passing-game factor every year. The Packers drafted wide receivers, but they want to run first. Once the Bucs mercifully gave Irving volume, around Week 6, he was an RB1. Don’t expect a big drop-off from these fellows versus the conventional running backs going earlier in Round 2.
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Detroit Lions co-starter David Montgomery cannot match teammate Jahmyr Gibbs for youth or skills, but don’t be so quick in doubting a repeat of his fine numbers. Montgomery has scored 25 rushing touchdowns the past two seasons. He reached double-digit fantasy points in 12 of 14 games last season. This plan works for the Lions. Montgomery’s ADP range lines up with several of the top rookies (aside from Las Vegas Raiders top pick Ashton Jeanty) from this year’s draft. I can’t trust those rookies over the proven Montgomery.
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Staying in the NFC North, the Vikings traded for former 49er Jordan Mason, and it seems everyone expects him to push established Aaron Jones Sr. aside. I can see the Vikings aiming to decrease the starter’s workload a bit, but come on, this should also result in more efficiency. Jones will see ample volume and catch 50 passes again, making him a borderline RB2. Catching passes matters, and this is why some of the better RB bargains of the latter rounds don’t need to start (Pittsburgh Steelers’ Jaylen Warren, Washington Commanders’ Austin Ekeler, Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Rachaad White, Seattle Seahawks’ Zach Charbonnet) to provide value.
Wide receivers
Tyreek Hill averaged 119 catches, 1,754 yards and 10 TDs in his first two seasons with the Dolphins before falling off in an injury-plagued 2024 season. AP Photo/Adrian Kraus
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This position is so different from running back for security, production, all of it. Give me any of the first 15 WRs from ADP. I do like Los Angeles Rams star Puka Nacua a bit more than most, teasing a potential 2,000-yard receiving season (OK, so 1,750 yards) if he can stay healthy. The talent and team offense are there. I might like Atlanta Falcons star Drake London more than most, because I do trust his sophomore lefty quarterback. Tyreek Hill has a lefty quarterback with the Miami Dolphins, and Tua Tagovailoa might have more risk than others due to prior concussions, but Hill was a top-three fantasy WR in his first two Miami seasons. Hedge that he can do that again.
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It is hard to find a safer WR than the Buccaneers’ Mike Evans. He has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in all 11 NFL seasons, and he reached double-digit touchdowns in four of the past five. You’re going to bet against Evans supplying those awesome numbers now? I don’t know how a top-10 fantasy WR (even with significantly fewer receptions than the top fellows) falls so far in drafts every season. He has finished in the top 10 at the position eight times!
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I bet most people do not realize that only 18 WRs scored more PPR points than Raiders starter Jakobi Meyers last season. Meyers may lack the perceived upside of other WR3 options, but don’t underrate the security of a safe pick. Meyers produced in New England, too. Even if he takes a small step backward in production, his value far outpaces his nonsensical WR5 price tag. The Raiders upgraded with QB Geno Smith. Meyers might even improve. The Vikings’ Jordan Addison (even despite his three-game suspension), Falcons’ Darnell Mooney and Carolina Panthers’ Adam Thielen are others whose ADP makes them quite underrated.
Tight ends
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Why Travis Kelce is still ‘pretty good’ as a fantasy tight end
Field Yates explains why Travis Kelce remains valuable as a fantasy tight end.
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We cannot ignore that Kansas City Chiefs future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce turns 36 in October, and he is coming off his worst fantasy season since he was a rookie. Then again, only four tight ends outscored Kelce last season. Only four! It would be foolish to draft Kelce with a top-50 pick, but the good and obvious news is you don’t have to! The hate is so strong that Kelce falls to Round 7 or later. I secured him in nearly every mock draft in that range. Don’t focus on the negative. No tight end enjoyed more red zone targets than Kelce during the 2024 season, so a rise in touchdowns should occur. Only two tight ends saw more targets or caught more passes. Kelce isn’t in the top tier of tight ends for fantasy anymore, but Round 7 is a steal.
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I admit I am willing to invest in one of the top rookie tight ends (Colston Loveland of the Bears and Tyler Warren of the Indianapolis Colts) because I don’t think we can count on many veterans at the position. I won’t take a tight end in the first five rounds. There are too many RB/WR choices to covet first. I do see Evan Engram bouncing back with the Denver Broncos, and the Packers’ Tucker Kraft feels like a breakout choice, but why not try a rookie and pivot in September if they struggle? Don’t be surprised if the Ravens’ Isaiah Likely becomes the team’s top option, too.
Check out the mock draft lobby, not once, not twice, but at least a dozen times, and see who you like for your teams. It might not match what I do in my drafts, and that is OK. Follow your analysis and gut to pick your teams. Perhaps you think Barkley does it again. Perhaps you think this is the year Henry stops. Perhaps you’re going rogue and selecting a quarterback in Round 1. Whatever the case, practice before the drafts count and form your very own Do Draft list.