Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball players, join Chris Towers Monday at12 p.m. ET in the comments of this story for a Week 20 Fantasy Baseball Q&A! Click the dialogue box at the top of the story to leave your comment and join the conversation. Need help setting your lineup? Got trade questions for the stretch run? We’ll answer them all right here!
Trying to predict performance is hard enough, but what makes analyzing relievers for Fantasy Baseball so tricky is we don’t just have to predict performance (usually based on inherently tiny sample sizes), but we also have to do armchair psychology, trying to predict who will earn their manager’s trust enough to lock down the only role that truly makes relievers valuable for our game.
When the Padres traded for Mason Miller, I assumed they must have done so with the intention of making him the closer. Miller is one of the best in the game – a better pitcher than their very good incumbent, Robert Suarez, in fact – and the Padres gave up a haul to get Miller, including a top-five prospect in Leo De Vries. Would they really do such a thing for a setup man?
Apparently, they would. The Padres got two save opportunities this weekend, and Suarez got them both. The first came in Friday’s win over the Cardinals, where he was called on to pitch the ninth in a three-run game, notably coming in after Miller secured the hold in the eighth inning. Miller didn’t pitch Saturday or Sunday, but Suarez did, coming on to get the Padres out of a jam in the ninth inning of a game they looked like they were going to win comfortably before Adrian Morejon struggled.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Suarez is just the closer and Miller just the setup man, but … it probably does. Manager Mike Shildt clearly trusts Suarez, and it’s not like Suarez is a bad closer – he’s very good, even if Miller is the more dominant pitcher. But if Suarez has his manager’s trust, then he’s probably going to have to lose the job for Miller to have a chance. That could happen – and Suarez’s margin for error is now significantly slimmer than it once was – but right now, it looks like Miller is going to end up one of the biggest losers of the trade deadline, while Suarez seems like he’ll remain the closer for one of the best teams in baseball.
That’s now how I had it going, which is frustrating. But that’s the name of the game with closers. We had a ton of turnover at the deadline, and before waivers run this week, let’s do a quick rundown of what we learned from closer situations around the league:
- As expected, Jhoan Duran got the ninth innings of a one-run game for the Phillies and got the save. He’s the closer here, even if Rob Thomson will occasionally use him in high-leverage situations before the ninth.
- With Camilo Doval out of the picture, the Giants turned to Randy Rodriguez, as we hoped. He got the 10th inning with a one-run lead Friday and closed it out for his second save of the season. He looks like the closer here and could be an elite one. He might be the highest priority add on waivers if you need saves.
- In Cleveland, the Guardians went to Cade Smith for a two-inning save Friday, while Hunter Gaddis got the ninth and struck out three for his first save Saturday. Smith was presumably unavailable Saturday, so I’m assuming he’s still just the closer here until Emmanuel Clase is cleared to return, but Gaddis is an interesting stash in deeper leagues.
- The Athletics didn’t have a save opportunity this weekend, but Sean Newcomb did pitch the ninth with a four-run lead Friday, while Jack Perkins threw three poor innings as a starter Sunday. Perkins was viewed as a potential closer candidate, but I’m going with Newcomb based on what we saw this weekend – which also included Newcomb pitching the eighth while trailing by two. Newcomb shouldn’t be a super-high priority, but he’s worth an add in most leagues where saves matter.
- Robert Garcia was still used as the Rangers closer, but he gave up a couple of runs to blow his fifth save Saturday. Given the addition of Phil Maton, the takeaway here is just that Garcia’s margin for error is slim. Let’s see what happens the next time they have a save – I’d bet on Garcia, but wouldn’t be shocked if it wasn’t him.
- The Yankees already said Devin Williams would remain the closer, but his case was surely helped by new additions David Bednar and Camilo Doval contributing to a complete bullpen meltdown against the Marlins Friday. Williams needs to avoid being tripped up himself, but his hold on that job looks a little tighter despite him not getting a chance to pitch this weekend as the Yankees were swept in Miami.
- As expected, Dennis Santana came in for the save Friday against the Rockies … and was an absolute disaster, giving up five runs to complete the historic comeback by the Rockies, who trailed 9-0 after the bottom of the first. But Santana would get another chance Sunday, this time with a four-run lead after the Pirates added on some insurance in the eighth. It wasn’t a save situation, so we can’t be sure, but I’d be betting on Santana remaining the closer here.
- Keegan Akin got the save for the Orioles Saturday, then pitched the ninth in a tie game Sunday. He gave up two runs (one earned) and took the loss, but that usage suggests he just may be at the top of the pecking order for now, making him a worthwhile flier in deeper leagues.
- Will Vest pitched the eighth with a four-run lead for the Tigers Saturday and struggled, giving up a two-run homer to Bryce Harper before the newly added Kyle Finnegan came on for the four-out save. Finnegan has his foot in the door.
- The Twins turned to Cole Sands in the eighth inning facing the No. 3, 4, and 5 hitters for the Guardians, striking out two to get out of the inning. Then Michael Tonkin came in for the save, only to give up two runs before being relieved by Erasmo Ramirez. Maybe Ramirez earned the next look, but I’d bet on Sands still, here.
- There are still a few situations we’re waiting for more info from, but we can act on what we saw this weekend. Rodriguez should be the highest priority, followed by Smith, with everyone else more or less listed in
Here’s who else we’re looking to add ahead of Week 20 of the Fantasy Baseball season.
Week 20 Waiver Targets
Catcher
Francisco Alvarez, Mets (33%) – Alvarez’s return from his stint in the minors has gone about as well as you could have hoped, hitting .308 with just seven strikeouts to five walks. We’d like to see more power still (one homer, though he does have five extra-base hits in nine games), but Alvarez looks locked in and is hitting well enough to be in that No. 2 catcher discussion.
Deep-league target:Adrian Del Castillo, Diamondbacks (6%) – Del Castillo hasn’t quite caught fire yet, but it’s only a matter of time. With the Diamondbacks trades over the past week or so, there’s plenty of opportunity for Del Castillo to spend time at both DH and catcher. I’d expect him to play at least two-thirds of the team’s games moving forward, maybe more if he gets hot, and there’s plenty of upside here – he has 30 homers in 119 games at Triple-A over the past two seasons.
First Base
Coby Mayo, Orioles (27%) – Well, it’s not great that Mayo responded to the trade deadline by striking out in five of his first 11 trips to the plate after the deadline, but that doesn’t really change the reality of the situation, which is that the deadline finally offered him a chance to play everyday. He has to take advantage of that chance, but for the first time in the majors, he’s going to get one. For a guy hitting .267/.363/.522 in his Triple-A career, that’s still worth getting excited about, even if he hasn’t quite put it together in the majors yet.
Deep-league target: Tyler Locklear, Diamondbacks (15%) – Locklear is another guy who is going to get a real opportunity to play everyday after the deadline, and he’s another guy whose minor-league track record suggests there’s something to get excited about. He doesn’t have quite as much raw power as Mayo, but his .293/.388/.495 line at Triple-A is comparable, and he also brings 23 steals in 168 games to the table. If you’re looking for some corner infield help, he’s a viable option.
Second base
Luke Keaschall, Twins (35%) – Keaschall remains on his rehab stint despite being eligible to come off the 60-day IL, but he’s gotta be close. I suspect the Twins might be waiting for him to get hot before activating him, as he is hitting just .238 with no extra-base hits in 12 games since going back to Triple-A. That’s fair, though it’s also worth noting that he has more walks than strikeouts and has seven steals in those 12 games, so he’s still doing the stuff that got us so excited about him before his fractured forearm. Keaschall’s ability to get on base and steal when he gets there could make him a real standout whenever he inevitably returns to the Twins lineup.
Deep-league target: Curtis Mead, White Sox (4%) – The White Sox are still pretty bad, but they’ve leaned into their badness by giving opportunities to talented players who might not have necessarily earned them, and it’s paid off a few times. They took a flier on Miguel Vargas at least year’s deadline and called up Colson Montgomery despite mediocre Triple-A production, and both have been pleasant surprises, especially late. Now it’s Mead’s turn to try it out. He hasn’t done much with his MLB opportunities, but he also hasn’t really had consistent chances yet, either. But the 24-year-old has hit .293/.373/.501 at Triple-A and should finally get the chance to sink or swim here down the stretch.
Third base
Colson Montgomery, White Sox (43%) – What can make judging minor-leaguers tough is we can’t necessarily know when their struggles are indicative of some fatal flaw in their game or approach vs. the result of something the team is having them specifically working on. The fact that the White Sox called Montgomery up after he experienced relatively little success at Triple-A suggests it could have been the latter – and the fact that he’s been so good in the majors to date might back that up. It’s still just 25 games, but Montgomery has shown playable plate discipline (which is a surprise) and plenty of power. Skepticism is reasonable, but he’s hot enough right now that it’s worth adding him to see if he can keep it up.
Deep-league target: Warming Bernabel, Rockies (26%) – It’s okay if you’ve never heard of him before: He’s making sure you know his name now. Bernabel has been unbelievable since being promoted in late July, hitting safely in his first seven games before Sunday’s 0-fer, and he’s hitting .483/.400/1.000 to date with five homers and only three strikeouts. The 23-year-old was hitting .301/.356/.450 at Triple-A, so it goes without saying that he won’t keep this up. But he makes a lot of contact and playable pop, a combination that could continue to work out very well with Coors Field helping out for half his games. Let’s see where this goes.
Shortstop
Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies (49%) – Tovar got off to a pretty miserable start to the season and has struggled with injuries, so his relatively low roster rate makes some sense. But he’s hitting .306/.348/.556 with six homers and 34 combined runs in 28 games since the middle of May. He’s a fringe option in points leagues, but he probably needs to be rostered in all categories leagues for his solid batting average and power upside.
Deep-league target: Liover Peguero, Pirates (3%) – We can’t ignore a three-homer game, and that’s what Peguero gave us Saturday against the Rockies. He hasn’t done much else – and he followed that up by going 0 for 5 Sunday – but if you’re in a super-deep league, why not see if he can build on that one?
Outfield
Lars Nootbaar, Cardinals (42%) – Nootbaar is back from the IL and while there are some playing time concerns here in a crowded outfield situation, he should be in the lineup more or less everyday. And while his .226 batting average is a disappointment, Nootbaar was doing a lot else well before his injury, including hitting the ball hard (91.9 mph average exit velocity) and showing off his typically excellent plate discipline. Nootbaar has struggled to live up to expectations over the past few years, but the upside is there, and he was finally starting to elevate the ball more consistently before the injury, giving him something like a .260 average and 20-plus homer upside.
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles (17%) – It seems like Mountcastle’s return from his rehab assignment should be imminent. The Orioles obviously have the need after their deadline day fire sale, and Mountcastle has looked excellent, going 9 for 23 with two homers and only three strikeouts in his first six games back. We’ll see him soon, and his underlying numbers – including a .270 xBA and .441 xSLG – suggest he should be much better than he was before the injury.
Jakob Marsee, Marlins (7%) – Like the White Sox, the Marlins have used their rebuilding phase to give some less heralded players an opportunity, and Marsee looks like he’s next. There’s a little bit of pop here, though Marsee mostly gets to it by hitting the ball in the air a lot to the pull side, which can be a risky strategy for batting average. But in his minor-league career, he flashed a good approach at the plate and potentially difference making speed, with 54 steals in 120 combined Triple-A games. This kind of player – middling-to-poor raw power, good plate discipline – tends to get exposed in the majors, but his speed is enticing enough to be worth a look in categories leagues now that he’s up.
Alan Roden, Blue Jays (3%) – Roden played his way into the Blue Jays plans with a big spring, but he struggled when he got the call. However, he continues to hit the ball well in the minors, with an average well over .300 and 12 homers and 12 steals in 103 games at Triple-A. Now with the Twins, he should get the kind of real everyday opportunities the deeper Blue Jays really couldn’t give him, and Roden combines a pretty good approach at the plate, at least average raw power, and when he’s right, a swing designed to maximize the power he does generate. The Twins are certainly going to give him the opportunity.
Blake Perkins, Brewers (3%) – The Brewers have a type. Perkins is another outfielder with poor raw power who can still thrive with a good approach at the plate and plenty of athleticism. He’s not quite playing everyday yet, though he might be forcing the team’s hand after three multi-hit games in a row, including a two-homer game Friday. In deeper category leagues, he’s worth a look.
Starting pitcher
Mike Soroka, Cubs (52%) – I’m a Soroka believer, and I love the move to the Cubs – he’s going from one of the worst defenses in baseball to one of the best. That should be good news for a guy with one of the biggest gaps between his xERA (3.33) and actual mark (4.87) in the league. And he gets to start his Cubs career with a two-start week this week, making him close to a must-start pitcher in points leagues with his RP eligibility. But if Soroka lives up to his underlying numbers, there’s a chance he could be an impact arm in any format.
Logan Henderson, Brewers (47%) – We always look at teams having “too much” pitching as if that’s ever actually been true for more than a few weeks at a time. And sure enough, a spot in the purportedly full Brewers rotation opened up this weekend when Jacob Misiorowski was sent to the IL with a bruised tibia. He’s expected to miss just the minimum amount of time, but Henderson was called up to replace him and once again looked excellent, limiting the Nationals to just one earned run over 4.1 innings of work.
Trevor Rogers, Orioles (77%) – Rogers isn’t really missing bats, but he keeps getting the job done anyway. What he has lost in pure stuff since his early days with the Marlins, he’s more than making up for with terrific command, leading to a 6.2% walk rate and .350 expected wOBA on contact – both the best marks of his career. A command-first profile is a tough one to sustain, but Rogers is getting the job done right now and not really showing any signs of slowing down after his eight-strikeout performance over the weekend against the Cubs. I don’t love trusting him against the Phillies this week, but he may have earned the trust.
Kyle Bradish, Orioles (32%) – Bradish is close to the end of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, getting up to 57 pitches in his most recent rehab outing Sunday. And if he can get back to anything like his pre-injury form, he’s well worth waiting on – remember, Bradish had a 2.81 ERA with 221 strikeouts in 208 innings over 38 starts between 2023 and 2024 before the injury. Pitchers often struggle when they first get back from long-term absences, and Bradish may be no different. But the upside is worth chasing here.
Spencer Arrighetti, Astros (73%) – The upside is worth chasing with Arrighetti, too, who will be back from his four-month absence due to a fractured right thumb sometime early this week. In case you forgot, you can’t just hold Arrighetti’s overall numbers against him from last season, because it took him a while to figure things out. Once he did, however, he looked like yet another in a long line of developmental wins for the Astros, as he put together a 3.31 ERA with 106 strikeouts in 87 innings over his final 16 starts. Command was always an issue for Arrighetti, but the stuff is electric, and betting on the Astros to get the most out of him probably isn’t a bad idea.