College football’s margins have only grown slimmer following the latest wave of conference realignment. The reshaped landscape has flattened the competitive curve, turning every conference schedule into a week-to-week grind. The difference between a playoff contender and a team scrapping for bowl eligibility can come down to a few untimely injuries or bad breaks in one-score games. As a result, several teams enter the 2025 season with floors and ceilings that are miles apart.
Last season, several programs shattered expectations — for better or worse. Few predicted Arizona State’s colossal breakthrough, nor did many expect Indiana to post the best season in school history. On the other side, it would’ve taken a psychic to foresee Florida State’s collapse into a two-win disaster.
Surprises are baked into the fabric of college football. Identifying them before they happen is, by nature, an extreme challenge. But reading the tea leaves on some of the sport’s biggest mystery teams offers a glimpse into their potential to either overachieve or disappoint.
Here are college football’s biggest wild cards heading into the 2025 season.
All playoff odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Odds to reach CFP: +520
The five wins Utah posted last season matched the fewest of its power conference era and snapped a bowl streak that dated back to 2014. Long story short: that’s probably not happening again. There would be ample shock value in seeing a team go from below .500 to the playoff in the span of one year, but that is an attainable feat for a program that promises a major offensive upgrade with tantalizing dual-threat weapon Devon Dampier arriving to solve the Utes’ devastating quarterback issues. The entire starting offensive line is back, too. Would anyone be surprised if the Utes dangled around the bowl eligibility threshold again? Probably not. But it’s hard to bet against Kyle Whittingham when he has this many tools at his disposal.
Odds to reach CFP: +1200
With Jalon Daniels finally healthy, last season was supposed to be Kansas’ opportunity to finally put everything together and shock the college football world. Instead, a 1-5 start stopped the Jayhawks from even reaching a bowl game. But something changed down the stretch when Lance Leipold’s squad rattled off three straight wins over ranked opponents. It is impossible to predict which version of Kansas shows up in 2025. If it is the former, this could be one of the best seasons in program history. If it is the latter, it will be ‘just another year of Kansas football” in the bottom of the Big 12.
Odds to reach CFP: +360
SMU was a polarizing team ahead of last season, but ended up proving all of its believers right with a trip to the ACC title game and College Football Playoff appearance. After Rhett Lashlee said farewell to more than half of his starting lineup, the Mustangs are back in offseason limbo. Only two defensive starters are back from the playoff squad, and it is fair to wonder how prepared SMU is to replace them with only has one year of Power Four recruiting experience under its belt. Roster depth will determine if another playoff surge is in the cards.
Indiana Hoosiers
Odds to reach CFP: +630
Living and dying by the transfer portal creates immense boom-or-bust potential. Indiana was on the boom side in a magical and historic Year 1 under Curt Cignetti, but a large contingent of the college football public is hesitant to buy into another one of those special campaigns in 2025. Another 23 transfers joined the mix this offseason, and none are as important as Fernando Mendoza, whose darkhorse Heisman contender potential gives the Hoosiers reason to believe they will remain a top-12 team nationally. It is on the few returning starters — Elijah Sarratt, Mikail Kamara, Aiden Fisher and D’Angelo Ponds chief among them — to ensure roster turnover does not put a cap on this program’s ceiling.
Odds to reach CFP: +570
USC won six games in its first regular season in the Big Ten. Believe it or not, that .500 team was only a few plays away from playoff contention. What if the Trojans reverse their one-score game fortunes and go 5-1 in those spots this year instead of the 1-5 they went in 2024? It is obviously not that simple, but the slim margins show just how much variance exists in this team’s potential for Year 2 in the Big Ten. Avoiding Ohio State and Penn State might be the jumpstart this program desperately needs. On the other hand, a third-straight letdown season might be the beginning of the end for Lincoln Riley’s tenure on Los Angeles.
Odds to reach CFP: +520
The last time Oklahoma avoided the injury bug, it won 10 games and climbed as high as No. 5 in the CFP rankings. In many ways, the Sooners’ SEC debut can be tossed aside as an outlier. Any team stretched that thin at wide receiver and offensive line would be bound to perish in such a loaded conference. Positive regression is in store. The question is, how much. Brent Venables needs it to manifest in the form of at least a few extra wins in order to silence his critics. The defense should remain stout under Venables’ guidance, so if John Mateer clicks at quarterback and new offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle is a hit, Oklahoma should bounce back quite nicely. All the way to playoff contention? We’ll see.
Odds to reach CFP: +370
Hesitance to buy into Auburn as a playoff hopeful is warranted. There is no proof of concept under Hugh Freeze, and the Tigers haven’t won more than six games since before the pandemic. That is why many have been quick to take this offseason’s splashes on the recruiting trail with a grain of salt. If ever there was a time for everything to come together, though, this is it. The entire starting offensive line and defensive backfield is back from a year ago. Auburn’s boasts of the nation’s most promising wide receiver units and Jackson Arnold is a breakout candidate at quarterback. Anything from .500 to SEC title contention is in play for this wild card team.