Heading into the season, I had Clemson circled. Preseason, they were the even-money ACC favorite, and I thought they had the balance, depth, and experience to control this conference. Miami, meanwhile, sat second on the odds board at +425. I saw potential, but I needed proof before buying in.
After Week 1, everything feels different. Clemson lost 17-10 at home to LSU, and Miami beat Notre Dame 27-24 in a game that told me a lot about where these two programs are right now. The market noticed, too. Miami stayed the second favorite, but their odds shifted from +425 to +325, and I agree with the move. I see value there.
Why my confidence in Clemson dropped
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Preseason, I had Clemson pegged as the safest team to back in the ACC. That confidence has cooled.
Clemson’s offense was a problem against LSU, and not in the “Week 1 rust” kind of way. They finished with just 261 total yards and only 13 first downs to LSU’s 25, went 3-for-13 on third down, and were shut out in the second half. Cade Klubnik went 19-of-38 with one interception, but he didn’t have much help, as the run game was nonexistent, managing only 31 yards on 20 carries. LSU controlled the line of scrimmage, and once Clemson became one-dimensional, the offense stalled. A failed fourth-down attempt inside the red zone late summed up their night: no rhythm, no finish, no spark.
This isn’t just about one game, either. With Klubnik under center, Clemson is now 3-5 against ranked opponents. Against better defenses, the offense struggles to create explosive plays and lacks a consistent identity. Even the defense, which I expected to progress preseason, raised questions. While they held LSU to 17 points, they gave up 354 total yards and lost the possession battle by nearly 15 minutes. The defensive front is talented, but if the offense keeps putting them in bad spots, it’s going to wear them down over the course of the season.
Why Miami feels different
1:18
Dinich: Miami could win the ACC
Heather Dinich and Paul Finebaum break down what they saw in Miami after the Hurricanes bested the Fighting Irish in a closely contested season opener.
Carson Beck is the difference-maker. With SEC experience, he looked composed and efficient against Notre Dame, going 20-of-31 for 205 yards, two touchdowns, and zero turnovers while taking just one sack. He spread the ball around to seven different players, kept the offense on schedule, and didn’t force anything. Malachi Toney broke out with six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, and CJ Daniels’ one-handed grab was the spark that shifted momentum. Miami also ran the ball for 127 yards on 37 attempts, giving them balance.
There’s a saying in football: you’re never as good or as bad as your last week. This isn’t about overreacting to one result; it’s about growth potential. Miami’s issues, special teams miscues and stretches of conservative play-calling, are fixable. Clemson’s problems with offensive line play, lack of a run game, and offensive identity feel structural.
Betting angle: Miami at +325 to win the ACC makes sense
It’s too early to tell, but Florida State (11-1) could also have something to say about this race, but Miami’s growth potential makes them an appealing value play at this number. The schedule, balance, and quarterback play are there. If they continue building on this foundation, Miami has the highest ceiling in the conference and possibly in all college football.