For all the noise and fan tumult, Arsenal’s situation at center forward is relatively straightforward. The club have long understood that they need to strengthen the position and have spent this summer (and the lead up to it) in dialogue with representatives for Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokores and their respective clubs. At some stage they will push their chips into the middle, making a commitment to find a new striker who can add the goals that were missing from their attack last season.
It is in rounding out their frontline that the complexities emerge. Arsenal are also targeting a wide attacker, an addition on the left flank who can do for them what Bukayo Saka does on the right: superstar stuff. Three years ago it seemed that Mikel Arteta might already have that. At that time Gabriel Martinelli was on the cusp of a breakout campaign in which he would lead the Arsenal scoring charts, all of his 15 goals coming in the Premier League. The Brazilian was razor sharp around the penalty area, dovetailed magnificently with Gabriel Jesus and seemed utterly without fear in everything he did.
That player has still been visible in the two years since but more occasionally. The last two seasons have delivered just 14 Premier League goals and eight assists. Martinelli remains extremely effective and much of his value lies beyond the scoresheet. The underlying metrics aren’t bad either, a combined 0.49 non-penalty expected goals and expected goals assisted (npxG+xAG) is a tally that plenty of Premier League wide men would not sniff at.
Then again, Arsenal’s sights are set higher than most and if they are to win the biggest prizes in the sport, perhaps they need an X-factor on the wings to complement Saka. Can that be Martinelli and what would further competition for his spot mean?
Cashing in on Martinelli?
It should be noted that, according to CBS Sports sources, Arsenal are not looking to sell Martinelli. Every player in their squad has their price, potentially even one that one of the world’s richest clubs could afford, but there is no internal pressure to sell the winger to fund business.
Certainly there are suitors on the market for the 24 year old Brazilian. Bayern Munich are admirers of Martinelli while links to Saudi Arabia have also emerged. According to CBS Sports sources, Al-Nassr have held internal discussions over the forward but the Saudi Arabian club have not put together a proposal for Arsenal’s consideration and are not currently preparing a bid.
Crucially too, sources close to Martinelli indicate that he would not be prepared to consider a move to the Pro League at this stage of his career. The forward has his eyes on a spot in the Brazil squad for the 2026 World Cup, though players from Saudi Arabia have been in Selecao squads, Martinelli’s best chance of making Carlo Ancelotti’s group would come through playing at the highest levels of the European game.
How Gabriel Martinelli compares to other left wingers in the 2024-25 Premier League
TruMedia
From Arsenal’s perspective, Martinelli has remained a valued member of Arteta’s squad even if the goals have not flowed as freely as they used to. Only five players have more Premier League minutes for the Gunners over the last three seasons than the Brazilian and his form was rewarded with a new contract late in 2023, one that tied him to the club until 2027 with the option to extend further by a year. At 24 his best years might still be ahead of him.
All of those qualities would also make Martinelli coveted by other clubs. Still, unless one of those makes the Godfather offer, Arsenal’s focus will be on an addition who builds on the strong foundations down the flanks, rather than a one in, one out approach. Those are enticing circumstances for the club to be in
Amid Saudi interest, is Rodrygo the answer?
Martinelli’s Brazilian international team mate Rodrygo features prominently among the options Arsenal are monitoring to strengthen on the flanks. No wonder, given that the 24-year-old looks to have been thrust to the peripheries of the Real Madrid XI since Xabi Alonso took the reigns at the Club World Cup. So far, there has been no indication from Spain or from the team currently playing in America, that a final decision has been made over his future, but if he were to choose to depart the Santiago Bernabeu, Arsenal would figure prominently among his suitors.
They are not the only ones. According to CBS Sports sources, Saudi Arabian side Neom SC are readying a sizeable bid for Rodrygo. Newly promoted to the Pro League, Neom are owned by the organization of the same name that is behind the planned city in the country’s north west. The backing for Neom comes from sovereign wealth fund PIF, who have bankrolled the Pro League’s Big Four over a two year period that has shaken up the global transfer market.
To what extent Rodrygo would consider a move away from Europe is not clear, but interest from one of the richest clubs in Saudi Arabia, one intent on adding star power to their squad this season, could drive up the price for other suitors. In a summer where Arsenal are adding at the back end of the pitch too — Christian Norgaard, Martin Zubimendi and Kepa Arrizabalaga close to arriving with talks ongoing to secure Valencia center back Cristhian Mosquera — that could force Arsenal into decisions they might not otherwise wish to make.
In Rodrygo’s case, those would probably be decisions worth making. The young Brazilian has already proven himself to be a player who can deliver in clutch moments, memorably downing Manchester City in the 2022 Champions League semifinals. The Rodrygo of 2022 to 2024 did it all: getting shots at volume, progressing the ball into dangerous areas, creating for himself and others. Last season the output dried up, of course it did. In the Champions League winning sides of recent years Rodrygo was often Robin to Vinicius Junior’s Batman. Add Mbappe and with Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler and Franco Mastantuono entering the fray, we’re at real risk of entering an Ace the Bat Hound scenario.
Alternative options
That is something that Rodrygo and Martinelli have in common. Part of the reason that the Arsenal winger’s output was so high in 2022-23, especially the pre-World Cup months, was Jesus drifting out to the left flank to give him someone to dovetail with, a center forward who would drift out to the left and create lanes for Martinelli to dart into. Jesus’ knee injuries and the development of first Granit Xhaka and then Declan Rice as box-crashing midfielders has forced Martinelli to become more of a white paint on the boots touchline-hugger, dragging his full back wide to create more space on the opposite flank for Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard.
In an attacking sense, Arsenal belong to those two, and rightly so. Their interplay is as devastating as almost any attack in football. When assessing who exactly will be the two forward additions at the Emirates Stadium this summer, one of the first questions should be how do they fit alongside Saka and Odegaard? Can they be an off ball forward who gets on the end of the chance creation from the right? (One of the fun aspects of a potential Rodrygo signing is whether he would simply be the lower touch player he has become at Madrid or if his talent is such that Arsenal’s center of gravity would shift.)
It is what makes it such a challenge to assess how other targets might fare in Martinelli’s position. Take Eberechi Eze, whose representatives Arsenal are understood to have held talks with in recent days. A glance at his output would suggest that from his inside left position he is delivering notably more than the Gunners’ No.11. Nearly three and a half shots and 0.31 xG as opposed to Martinelli’s 2.15 and 0.29, more chances created too at two versus 1.5. One of Martinelli’s great strengths is his diligence out of possession, Eze recovers the ball notably more frequently however.
Martinelli similarly struggles to match the raw output of Anthony Gordon and Morgan Rogers, both of whom have been linked with a move to North London. Is that, however, a function of the relatively limited number of touches he gets? Assess each player by what they do per 100 touches and you get an alternative view of the Brazilian.
How Martinelli compares to Arsenal’s Premier League targets
Per 100 touches, Premier League 2024-25
Penalty box touches
17.83
6.4
9.75
10.16
11.41
Shots
5
6.39
4.16
3.56
6.73
Non-penalty expected goals
0.68
0.56
0.46
0.43
0.54
Goals
0.73
0.5
0.42
0.52
0.59
Chances created
3.64
3.64
3.59
3.36
2.48
Take ons
10.56
8.97
7.68
10.54
7.75
Expected assists
0.42
0.29
0.36
0.34
0.23
Assists
0.36
0.5
0.35
0.65
0.27Progressive passes5
7.08
7.268.345.76Progressive carries20.8411.4114.7314.8715.98Expected possession value added0.490.25
0.420.290.39
Adjusting the playing field when it comes to touches certainly offers a different perspective on what seemed to be a lean year for Martinelli. Every 90 minutes he touched the ball around 43 times, Eze 55 and Gordon 52. Rogers is nearer at 44.5 and not necessarily delivering much more.
There are always further adjustments to be made. Clearly when adjusting to per 100 touches that we have not accounted for where that spread of possession might land; a player such as Eze is required to do more deep build up to an off ball threat ghosting in off the left. Adjust to every 100 touches in the attacking third, however, and you have a player in Martinelli who averages an expected goal. Only Eze at 1.35 betters that, no wonder when he takes more than twice as many shots as the Brazilian.
Still, we are left with questions. Eze is the heart of the offense on a midtable team, does that explain why his numbers are so high or do those numbers merely speak to his talents at getting on the ball and manufacturing scoring opportunities for himself? Is Martinelli touching the ball more infrequently because he does not offer the security in possession and build up that other left wingers might? Would Arsenal’s build up change to accommodate an Eze or Rodrygo? The latter might be the sort of wide man who could propel the Gunners to the silverware they long for, but would the rest overhaul Martinelli, bring the best out him or function as a useful third option out wide?
These aren’t questions with obvious answers. Perhaps all that is apparent is that Arsenal already have one very useful winger to dovetail with Saka. Now, with Martinelli having set a high benchmark, they need to find another.