Keir Starmer has said the government will stand firm on its welfare plans as ministers and party whips struggled to contain a growing Labour rebellion before next week’s vote.
By Tuesday night the tally of rebels stood at 123 Labour MPs, up from 108, plus 11 MPs from opposition parties, all from Northern Ireland. As Labour heavy-hitters waded into the row, there were fears inside government that the number would rise and scupper Starmer’s changes to benefits.
The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, was among those urging the prime minister to drop his plans, warning they would “destroy the financial safety net” for millions of people.
While cabinet ministers were deployed to win over Labour rebels, some whips and government aides were accused by MPs of threatening deselection and suggesting a defeat could blow up the government. No 10 denied the claims.
The Labour rebels, including senior committee chairs, have tabled an amendment that calls for the government to pause the legislation and bring forward the promised £1bn to get more people into work first. If ministers do not agree, they will try to vote the bill down.
The scale of the rebellion appeared to take Downing Street, and even some of the Labour backbenchers, by surprise, amid concerns that thousands of vulnerable people could be plunged into poverty as a result of losing their disability benefits.
Starmer, however, said on Tuesday that he would press ahead with the overhaul, insisting there was a “clear moral case” for change.
Speaking on his way to the Nato summit in The Hague, the prime minister defended the plans to tighten the eligibility criteria for personal independence payment (Pip).
“There is a clear moral case, which is: the current system doesn’t help those who want to get into work,” he said.
“It traps people. I think it’s 1,000 people a day going on to Pip. The additions to Pip each year are the equivalent of a city the size of Leicester. That is not a system that can be left unreformed.”
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, spent much of Tuesday locked in talks with MPs as she sought to win over opponents. Cabinet ministers including Angela Rayner, Jonathan Reynolds and Wes Streeting were also understood to have been deployed to try to convince anxious backbenchers.
On Tuesday night a rebel said that just one Labour backbencher had withdrawn their name, despite the attempts by cabinet ministers and whips to persuade MPs to fall in line, while 16 more had added theirs.
Another said that the amendment had more supporters who had decided not to sign, meaning the scale of opposition could be even larger.
The size of the rebellion is enough to threaten Starmer’s working majority of 165 and defeat the government’s plans if opposition MPs side with the rebels. No 10 could opt to pull the bill rather than face defeat.
Vicky Foxcroft, a former government whip who resigned over the welfare plans, has signed the amendment, along with the former cabinet minister Louise Haigh. More frontbenchers, who would then have to stand down, are expected to join the rebellion.
On Tuesday evening Kemi Badenoch offered Conservative support to help the government pass its welfare bill in exchange for three commitments from Starmer.
Badenoch told Sky News: “I’m just making it very clear to Keir Starmer that if he will make commitments at the dispatch box to meet our conditions, which are to reduce the welfare budget, to get people into work and not to have tax rises, then we can support his bill.
“The bill is a bit of a mess. It needs some work. It looks like it’s been rushed for Rachel [Reeves] to fix other problems that they’ve got. But our welfare budget is far too high, and we really need to bring it down.”
With the government unlikely to bow to Tory pressure to make commitments, particularly on tax rises, it appeared that she was giving the opposition political cover to vote against or abstain on the bill.
The rebel amendment, led by the Treasury select committee chair, Meg Hillier, raises concerns the proposals could push up to 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – into poverty.
It also criticises the government for failing to publish the Office for Budget Responsibility’s impact assessment before the vote, and for pursuing changes without adequate consultation with disabled people.
The proposed legislation would make it harder to qualify for Pip by requiring claimants to meet a higher threshold in their assessments. It also includes plans to halve the health top-up in universal credit for new claimants from 2026 and phase out the work capability assessment.
Khan urged ministers to look again at the hardship the changes would force on vulnerable and disabled people. He said the additional employment and training support should be brought in as soon as possible, and proper transitional protections put in place before cuts.
“I have always said that more must be done to support people to go from relying on benefits to getting back into work,” he said.
“It’s vital for a healthy and prosperous London. What we can’t do is take away the vital safety net that so many vulnerable and disabled Londoners rely upon.”
Asked if concessions would be offered to rebels, a No 10 spokesperson said: “We’ll talk to them over the next week but the government believes this is a good package of reforms. We hope that colleagues will engage positively over the next few days.”
The Cabinet Office minister, Pat McFadden, said on Tuesday morning it would be a “very serious thing” for Labour MPs to effectively vote down the legislation at its first major outing in the Commons.
Disability charities have criticised the changes, warning they will disproportionately affect people with mental health conditions, women with fluctuating illnesses and unpaid carers.
Experts warned that up to 1.2 million people with disabilities are expected to lose thousands of pounds a year under Kendall’s plans to save £5bn a year by overhauling the welfare system, including by cutting Pip.
An extra 250,000 people will fall into relative poverty by 2029-30, according to the government’s own impact assessment.