The Indiana Pacers walloped the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday, setting up a Game 7 for all the marbles on Sunday. The game will be in OKC, where the Thunder are 10-2 this postseason and are a 7.5-point favorite to win the deciding game.
By extension, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the heavy Finals MVP favorite at the books. My rankings reflect the same because I believe the Thunder will win this game. But if Indiana punctuates what has been the wildest postseason I can remember with one last upset, it will be a very interesting call between their two Pascal Siakam, Tyrese Haliburton and possibly even T.J. McConnell.
Before we get into my Finals MVP rankings as I see them through six games in this series, a couple of notes to keep in mind.
- Only one time in history has a player from the losing team won Finals MVP: Jerry West in 1969, when the Lakers lost to the Celtics in seven games despite West’s 38 points, seven assists and four rebounds per game. Which is to say, barring something happening that has only happened once in the last 55 NBA Finals (which can’t be ruled out, I suppose, given the statistically absurd nature of these playoffs in general and specifically the Pacers’ run), a player from the winning team is going to win Finals MVP.
- Not only has the Finals MVP come from the winning team all but one time, but it’s also usually the leading scorer in that particular series that claims the hardware. Only 12 times has the Finals MVP been awarded to a player who did not lead his team in scoring in that series.
With all this said, let’s get to the Finals MVP rankings heading into Game 7 on Sunday.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Current odds (via Caesars): -250
SGA remains the favorite because the Thunder are still expected to win the series. The question is whether any other Thunder player would have a chance to sneak in and steal Finals MVP with a massive Game 7. I wouldn’t bet on that.
Yes, Jalen Williams has been largely sensational. We’ll get to him in a minute. But in the end, SGA is averaging north of 30 PPG in this series and will likely need to be at least pretty good in Game 7 for the Thunder to win. His numbers are almost certainly going to be too strong in the end if OKC wins.
2. Pascal Siakam
Current odds: +285
Siakam is Indiana’s leader in the clubhouse. For starters, he’s the Pacers’ leading scorer in this series at a tick south of 20 PPG (see the table above for how much that matters). Siakam hasn’t had any huge scoring games, but he has been by far Indiana’s most consistent source of offense.
And he’s not just scoring. He’s adding 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Siakam was superb in Game 4 with 20 points, eight rebounds, five steals and five assists, and he’s also getting to the free-throw line a shade under seven times a game.
If Indiana wins, Finals MVP is totally up for grabs. But right now, Siakam has the edge.
3. Tyrese Haliburton
Current odds: +1200
The books have Haliburton at longer odds than Jalen Williams, but I’ve got that flipped. If the Thunder win, it’s going to take something extraordinary for Williams to overtake SGA. But if the Pacers win, Haliburton is within reasonable range of overtaking Siakam.
For starters, he owns the signature moment of this series with his game-winner in Game 1. Second, he has a plus-21 point differential for the series. That speaks to his impact, even as he has had, by traditional standards, an up-and-down series, with his 0-for-6 showing in Game 5 being the low point.
Still, even as his scoring has fluctuated, Haliburton’s impact has been evident. Bear in mind, he is now one of two players in history to average at least seven assists, seven rebounds and three made 3-pointers over the first three games of an NBA Finals. The other? Stephen Curry in 2017. Not bad company.
He’s still behind Siakam right now, but I would go so far as to say Haliburton having a huge Game 7 is the surest way for Indiana to pull the upset. Yes, the Pacers are a sum-of-their-parts operation defined more by balance than individual dominance, but Haliburton is built for the big stage like few players. Even in his injured state, it is not hard to imagine him going on one of his theatrical 3-point binges to carry the Pacers to victory. If he does, it will be the last thing on voters’ minds, and it could well push him over the top.
4. Jalen Williams
Current odds: +1400
Williams has been largely outstanding, but he hasn’t been terribly efficient with 45/26 shooting splits and he was a minus-40 in OKC’s Game 6 loss. Given his three straight 25-point games culminating with his 40 piece in Game 5, if he were to come out and have an absolutely dominant Game 7 while SGA lays an egg, and if OKC were able to win under those circumstances, it’s feasible that Williams could overtake SGA for Finals MVP.
But again, it’s just hard to see the Thunder winning if SGA doesn’t have at least a good game, particularly given their shooting struggles as a team. And a good game from SGA and an OKC win is going to be more than for an SGA coronation. Williams needs a particular scenario to play out. It’s not an impossible one. It’s just not likely.
5. T.J. McConnell
Current odds: +7500
McConnell is a super long shot here at 130-1, but his folk-hero status warrants inclusion in this race. He and the Pacers are a match made in underdog heaven, and he has been out of his mind in this series — becoming the first bench player since the 1977 merger to log at least 10 points and five assists in three Finals games, and the first bench player ever to do this:
McConnell still has one game left to add to these numbers, and if he goes absolutely crazy in Game 7, which is a legit possibility, and is the Pacers are indeed able to pull the upset despite so-so/down games from Siakam and Haliburton, McConnell just might be a romantic enough story to swoop in and swoon enough voters to steal this thing.
This is another “don’t bet on it” situation, or at least don’t bet a lot on it, but ask yourself this: Have the Pacers, and McConnell specifically, not firmly established a complete lack of regard for long odds? This might be worth a flyer.
2025 NBA Finals MVP odds
(Odds via Caesars as of June 21)