Serious violent crime in England and Wales should be expected to rise unless urgent steps are taken to boost the probation service. That is the alarming warning from Martin Jones, HM chief inspector of probation. He estimates that 100,000 offenders on probation are currently not being properly managed. This overstretched service cannot be expected to manage the increased workload that will follow from sentencing reforms. The deliberate stoking of public anxieties about crime by far-right activists and Reform UK is all the more reason to pay attention.
Supervising more offenders in the community is a good idea in principle. Prisons are overcrowded and short sentences are ineffective, with a high reoffending rate. When too many people are locked up for 12 months or less, and jails are too full, the continual churn and poor conditions make it difficult for prison officers to do their job. The cost-saving potential of technology in public services is often overstated. But the increased use of electronic tags is a plausible means of improving the criminal justice system overall.
Fewer short sentences and more tagging were among the recommendations of David Gauke’s sentencing review. Labour’s implementation of his proposals should be welcomed. But Mr Jones is right that such a shift is not risk-free. He has suspended ordinary probation inspections for six months in order to survey the overall situation.
Ministers know that the Probation Service requires building up, if the work of supervising offenders is to be shifted on to it and away from prisons. Investment of up to £700m between now and 2028-29 has been promised. The danger is that the risk to public safety increases – as a result of more offenders being released early, or tagged instead of imprisoned – before the capacity of the probation service to manage them.
Past failures mean that concerns are well founded. Two years ago an inquest found that “omissions” by probation officers contributed to a situation in which Damien Bendall was able to kill his pregnant partner and three children. A similar finding followed the murder of Zara Aleena. In both cases, probation officers’ lack of experience was a factor.
The Metropolitan police chief, Sir Mark Rowley, said in May that some increase in crime should be expected when more offenders are released. He raised concerns about the need for new resources jointly with the heads of MI5 and the National Crime Agency. Such risks must not be overstated. Sentencing reform takes courage, and ministers should stand by their pledge to tackle prison overcrowding. But it is better to recognise a public safety issue now than ignore it and hope for the best.
Probation has rarely been treated with the seriousness it deserves. The Tories’ attempt to privatise it was a disaster. There have been 11 justice secretaries in a decade. Some experts think probation and prisons should never have been merged into one organisation, and that probation needs stronger links to councils and housing providers.
This is challenging work, the dangers of which were underlined last month when a probation officer in Preston was stabbed. It needs investment, but also human capital in the form of experienced staff who can build relationships with offenders and younger recruits. Mr Jones’s cry for help on behalf of the service must be heard.
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