Quarterback is an important position in Fantasy Football, and we have our NFL model’s current projections for the top signal-callers. I’m only ranking based on Weeks 1 to 17, since most leagues will not include Week 18. This is a big factor because many highly competitive division matchups are saved for Week 18, and there will be many lower-scoring games in Week 18. Along with our rankings, let’s also focus on tough “Would You Rather” comparisons that actually could result in unconventional, but winning, draft strategies.
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PLAYERFP/GPADPECRLamar Jackson23.711Josh Allen23.122Jayden Daniels21.443Jalen Hurts21.255Joe Burrow20.934Kyler Murray19.6912Patrick Mahomes18.766Baker Mayfield18.577Brock Purdy18.51313Justin Fields18.21110Bo Nix17.989Dak Prescott17.6108Jared Goff17.01211Caleb Williams16.91517Jordan Love16.51614Justin Herbert16.31418Geno Smith15.72626Matthew Stafford15.72424Tua Tagovailoa15.41721Drake Maye15.42016Trevor Lawrence15.21915J.J. McCarthy15.22120C.J. Stroud15.11822Michael Penix Jr.14.92223Aaron Rodgers14.3129Anthony Richardson13.92519Russell Wilson13.8130Sam Darnold13.8127Bryce Young13.7128Cameron Ward13.22325
Would You Rather Draft Patrick Mahomes in the 4th Round or Kyler Murray in the 8th?
We would not only take Murray in the 8th or 9th over Mahomes in the 4th to 5th, but we would also take Murray straight up based on the projection. Now we would never draft Murray in the first six rounds because you do not need to. Mahomes is a great scrambler but usually waits until the playoffs to really start running wild. Murray’s schedule includes a weaker average run defense (19th in yards per carry) than Mahomes’ opposition (16th in ypc allowed).
Kyler also has more opportunities to play from behind. Arizona is favored in just eight of their games, and he should be in position to get big chunk plays (passing and running) vs. prevent defenses when the Cardinals are down 10+ points in the second half. Mahomes and the Chiefs are favored in 13 of their games and are far more likely to be playing conservatively in the second halves of games. We also like that Murray’s top targets are rising, young players like TE Trey McBride and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. with upside (McBride start getting TDs, Harrison across the board), as opposed to Mahomes, who has an aging (declining) Travis Kelce.
Kyler Murray Best Futures Bet: Over 475.5 Rushing Yards -110 (DraftKings)
This pick is 100% correlated to staying healthy. When he has played 16+ games, he has had 544, 819, and 572 yards on the ground. When he played fewer than 16 games, he had 423, 418 and 244 rushing yards. It is encouraging that he had his highest YPC last season (7.3), which shows he is as explosive a runner as ever. He and the coaching staff know it’s better for Kyler to be a major running threat and play like “good Kyler” for another three or four years than it is to stop running, have your height limit your vision, and be like old Russell Wilson and kind of suck for six to eight more years. You can bet on Kyler to go Over 475.5 rushing yards at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
Patrick Mahomes Best Futures Bet: Over 27.5 Passing Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
The Chiefs had so much success winning close games the last few seasons with a vastly improved defense that they got used to waiting until final drives before Mahomes would play like Mahomes 2018-2022. This formula was totally broken by the Eagles in the Super Bowl. While Travis Kelce is trending down, Mahomes has chain-moving WR Rashee Rice back to help the team get in the red zone more, and in the RZ, TE2 Noah Gray had 5 TDs (Kelce just 2 in ’24). While the Chiefs are favored in 13 of 17 games, they are only favored by 7+ points in four of those games. Expect more shootouts vs. improved offenses in their own division and Mahomes needing to put on the Superman cape at the start of games and not just in late-game situations.
Which QB With Flowing Locks Would You Rather Have? Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert?
Trevor Lawrence has thrown an INT in 2.2% of his career pass attempts and fumbled 5.6% of his carries. Playoff Justin Herbert has been a disaster with 4 INTs in 75 career playoff passes (5.3%) and one fumble vs 3 carries (33%). But in the regular season, Herbert’s INT rate is just 1.5% and his fumble rate is just 3.8%, both well lower than Trevor Lawrence’s rates.
The +8 more turnovers by Lawrence vs. Herbert are why the model projects Herbert to be six spots better than Lawrence, whom the FFT experts have 3 spots better. Herbert in Year 1 with Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman only averaged 13.7 FPs in his first 6 games but then took off with a 22.1 average in his final 11 games (Sam Darnold averaged 22.2). Herbert is projected for a higher FP average AND is less of an injury risk.
The scoring being used assumes -2 points per turnover. If you are in a -1 league, then the two are tied at 18 FP per game.
Justin Herbert Best Futures Bet: Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns -108 (FanDuel)
The reason why Herbert’s FP average spiked after his first 6 games last season was his passing TDs spiked when Ladd McConkey popped for his first 100+ yard multi-TD game. He was averaging just 1 pass TD per game in his first 6 games before jumping by 50% to 1.5 in his final 11. He only has 6 teams that ranked in the top 10 in defensive passer rating last season, and one of those is Week 18 at Denver, and 99% of fantasy leagues are over before this game. Quentin Johnston is considered a bust because of some really bad drops, but when he’s not dropping easy passes, he is scoring TDs (eight on 55 receptions last season). Herbert has come in under 21.5 just once in his career, when he had 20 in 13 games played.
Trevor Lawrence Best Futures Bet: Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns -110 (DraftKings)
We do not have a ton of value on the over, but we may be underrating the impact of having a new offense and new head coach. Baker Mayfield went from an impressive 28 passing touchdowns in 2023 to a massive 41 in 2024 in new Jaguars HC Liam Cohen’s lone season as the OC in Tampa Bay. Brian Thomas Jr. is a superstar who could reach 12 TDs by himself alone. Travis Hunter and a rejuvenated running game should result in many more RZ opportunities. This pick could definitely be revised to an Over in Pass Interceptions once those lines post. You can bet on Lawrence to go Over 21.5 passing touchdowns at DraftKings, where new users get over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket and $200 in bonus bets instantly:
We Would Take Bo Nix as a Safer Bet as a Starter, but Caleb Williams Has a Big Upside If…
Caleb Williams ran for 10+ TDs in both of his final seasons at USC. Nix was a good college runner and was very impressive as a rookie, averaging 4.7 YPC and having 4 rushing TDs. Williams ran even better with 6.0 YPC but did not have a rushing TD. Williams was also too loose in the pocket and struggled with lost fumbles like he did his last year at USC. Nix did not lose a fumble as a rookie. We do not project him to be the first Bears QB to pass for 4,000 yards primarily because five of the defenses he faces in his first 17 games ranked in the top 5 in defensive passer rating last season and three games are vs. teams ranked 10th (PIT) and 11th (GB twice).
Bo Nix has been statistically more prolific going back to their Pac-12 days and is definitely the option we would take as a starter. But if Caleb Williams cuts down on his lost fumbles and gets 4+ rushing TDs, he could tie Nix in FPs. Caleb could also be a good waiver wire pickup if he struggles in his first two games vs. top-tier defenses (MIN, DET) and might pop starting in Week 3 against Dallas.
Bo NIx Best Futures Bet: Over 23.5 Passing TDs -114 (FanDuel)
Nix crushed this number last season with 29 passing TDs despite having zero in his first three games. Sean Payton saw him as a mobile Drew Brees coming out of college, and after the first month of the season, he played like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos had a bad RB room last season, led by Javonte Williams. The new duo of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey should help Denver extend more drives and have more RZ opportunities, which only helps Nix’s TDs. You can bet on Nix to go Over 23.5 passing touchdowns at FanDuel, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins:
Caleb Williams Best Futures Bet: Over 400.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Caleb cruised over this number as a rookie despite having efforts with just 15, 8 and 12 rushing yards in his first four games. The new coaching regime will clearly pick up on the fact that the more Caleb runs, the more prolific his passing is. He had eight games with over 30 rushing yards, and he averaged 250 passing yards in these games. He had seven games with fewer than 30 yards, and he averaged 182 passing yards. He may not be Lamar Jackson in terms of top-end speed, but Caleb is an extremely elusive runner, and rather than take blindside hits and lose fumbles, expect Caleb to take off 6+ times a game, average 35+ rushing yards and cash this in mid-November.
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