The final game of the 2024-25 NBA season takes place on Sunday with Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. OKC is a 7.5-point favorite and the over/under is 215. This has been a roller coaster of a series, providing profitable opportunities on Overs and Unders depending on which side of NBA player props you explored on betting sites. It all culminates with a Game 7 at Oklahoma City’s Paycom Center on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET. Our model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to showcase one more time why he was the NBA MVP this year and expects him to go Over in multiple NBA player props. However, the model finds the best value in playing SGA Over 43.5 total points + rebounds + assists in the Thunder vs. Pacers prop bets.
Gilgeous-Alexander had just 21 points, four rebounds and two assists in Game 6, which the Pacers controlled from early on to force a Game 7. SGA also played a series-low 31 minutes, so he should be well-rested to play nearly every minute of the winner-take-all Game 7. The model projects a significant workload from SGA as part of the reason to play his Over when making Sunday Pacers vs. Thunder prop bets for online sports betting and same-game parlay picks. You can find Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 PRA in an NBA prop that can be played utilizing a FanDuel promo code for new users. Also, check out our Thunder vs. Pacers score prediction, Thunder vs. Pacers odds, and Thunder vs. Pacers SGP.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 7 NBA props (odds subject to change):
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-112)
- Myles Turner Over 17.5 points + rebounds (-108)
- TJ McConnell Over 4.5 assists (-105)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 43.5 total points + rebounds + assists (-112)
Two poor performances on the road has Gilgeous-Alexander averaging well below this total for the series, but for games in Oklahoma City, SGA is averaging 34.3 points, four rebounds and seven assists for a 45.3 PRA total. And that’s without the additional minutes a Game 7 is sure to bring a player like Gilgeous-Alexander. He averaged a 45.1 PRA total at home this season over 33.7 minutes per game. He’s played at least 40 minutes in three of six games in this series, and you can expect 40 minutes to be his floor in the most important game of the season. Gilgeous-Alexander had at least 21 field-goal attempts in all three home games this series, and the model projects SGA for a 45.7 PRA total on Sunday, and Oh likes SGA’s ability to contribute outside of just scoring to cover this number.
“Game 7 effort and major minutes should deliver his rebounding (5.9 average, 22-10 Over 4.5 when playing 38+ minutes),” Oh said. “The best way the Thunder can counter both Haliburton and T.J. McConnell is for SGA to be super aggressive offensively and we do expect the referees to give MVP ‘free throw merchant’ SGA a friendly whistle in this critical situation.” FanDuel is the place to make this play, offering him at a 43.5 PRA total while other sportsbooks have raised the number to 44.5. Play with a FanDuel promo code, and new users can earn $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Myles Turner Over 17.5 points + rebounds (-108)
Although Turner had just three points and four rebounds in Game 6, it wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. Turner had nine field-goal attempts over 26 minutes, but he was just simply off. However, Turner averaged 13 points over the first five games of the series and is averaging 4.5 rebounds per contest in the NBA Finals as the model doesn’t expect another dysmal shooting performance as in Game 6. He’s had his three best scoring performances in Oklahoma City as well, scoring at least 13 points in all three games and averaging 14.6 points with 6.3 rebounds per game on the road this series.
Turner’s averages have slightly dipped in the postseason from the regular season, going from 15.6 points to 14.1 points per game and 6.5 rebounds to 4.8 rebounds per game, but he’s still averaging Over the 17.5 number for Game 7. He’s averaging 29.8 minutes per game this postseason, and similar to SGA, he’ll likely be pushed additional minutes in this final game of the season. FanDuel is also offereing the best odds on this play at -108, but if you already have a FanDuel account and are looking for a strong sign-up bonus, bet365 is offering this at -115 odds and the current bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses
T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 assists (-105)
McConnell had six assists in a series-high 24 minutes in Game 6 as the Pacers had the ball in his hands more with Tyrese Haliburton limited to 23 minutes due to managing a calf injury. Haliburton’s calf will be far from 100% in Game 7 as well as he’s officially listed as questionable, so expect a larger role from McConnell on Sunday again. After scoring 12 points on 6-of-12 shooting with nine rebounds and six assists, the 33-year-old guard proved worthy of the additional playing time.
He is averaging 4.5 assists per game this series despite playing fewer than 20 minutes in four of six contests. The model projects McConnell for 25 minutes on Sunday and he averaged 5.4 assists in the 26 regular-season games where he played at least 20 minutes. With Haliburton less than full health and McConnell effective when given his opportunities this year, the model sees value in this play as it projects McConnell for 5.1 assists on Sunday. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best odds at -105 and DraftKings promo code awards new users $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals?
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You can also see Sunday’s top NBA picks from expert Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 100-43 (+2395.75) roll on his last 143 NBA player props picks, has locked in his favorite NBA player prop bet for Sunday. Visit SportsLine to see who Severance is backing or fading, all from an expert who’s up nearly 24 units.