The pressure starts on Day 1 for the Cincinnati Bengals when they travel to Cleveland to open the 2025 NFL regular season on Sunday. Cincinnati failed to make the playoffs last year despite a near-MVP year by quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals, who closed 2024 by winning their final five games, will face a Cleveland Browns team that named Joe Flacco its Week 1 starter. The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites, but Burrow is just 3-5 in his career versus Cleveland, while Flacco hasn’t faced Cincy since 2022.
Dolphins vs. Colts (-1) has the lowest Week 1 NFL spread as Daniel Jones will make his team debut against Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. Other slim NFL lines include Buccaneers vs. Falcons (+1.5) and 49ers vs. Seahawks (+1.5). Which team has value to include in Week 1 NFL bets, and which side of the NFL odds should you target? Before locking in any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its sports betting picks, you’d be looking at a massive payout of nearly 25-1. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine,
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Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Washington Commanders (-6.5, 45.5) to cover against the New York Giants. Washington reached the NFC Championship Game last season. The Commanders had won seven consecutive games going into that game behind Jayden Daniels, now in his second season. Daniels was dominant in 2024. He completed 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns with just nine interceptions. In a 45-31 divisional round win over the Detroit Lions, Daniels completed 22 of 31 passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns with zero interceptions.
After some drama involving his contract, top receiver Terry McLaurin now has a new deal as well, putting him position to be in the lineup for the opener. The Commanders won both meetings last season, and the model has them covering in more than 60% of simulations in an A-rated pick. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here and bet the Commanders to cover here:
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including backing an underdog that it says will not only cover, but win outright. You can only see the model’s Week 1 NFL best bets and NFL parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model’s top Week 1 NFL picks, and which NFL matchups should you target for an epic 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on an 31-15 run on top-rated picks, and find out.