The 2025 MLB Draft is a little over two weeks away. Four years ago, MLB pushed the draft back from the first week of June to the All-Star break in an effort to better market the event, and it will remain there moving forward, even though many executives don’t like it. The two-day draft begins Sunday, July 13, this year.
This is the third year of MLB’s draft lottery system. In the past, the draft order was the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, which was nice and easy. Now picks 1-6 are assigned via lottery, picks 7-18 are the remaining non-postseason teams in the reverse order of the previous year’s standings, and picks 19-30 are postseason teams in order of their playoff finish.
At 71-91, the Nationals had baseball’s sixth-worst record last season, yet Washington won the lottery and moved up to the No. 1 pick. It is the third time in franchise history the Expos/Nationals have held the No. 1 selection. The first two times worked out about as well as any team could hope: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010.
2025 MLB Draft rankings: Top 30 players in class, including Eli Willits, Jamie Arnold, Ethan Holliday and more
R.J. Anderson
The Mariners also won big on lottery day. They moved up from the No. 17 pick to No. 3. This will be Seattle’s highest selection since taking Mike Zunino with the No. 3 pick in 2012. The 121-loss White Sox moved back to the No. 10 pick. They had the No. 5 pick in last year’s draft and teams that pay into the revenue sharing system cannot have lottery picks in back-to-back years.
Each team is given a set bonus pool for draft spending each summer. The penalties for excessive spending are harsh enough (tax on overage, forfeit a future first rounder, etc.) that the bonus pool effectively acts as a hard cap. The bonus pools are tied to picks in the top 10 rounds, and if you sign one player to a below slot bonus, you can give the savings to another player(s).
Here are the five largest bonus pools for the 2025 MLB draft (per MLB.com):
- Mariners: $17,074,400
- Rays: $16,699,400
- Angels: $16,656,400
- Nationals: $16,597,800
- Orioles: $16,513,100
Generally speaking, teams do not draft for need in the early rounds of the draft. It’s difficult to predict this sport a month or two into the future. It’s impossible to know what your roster needs will be two or three (or more) years down the line, when these players will be ready for the big leagues. Take the best, most talented player, and sort out the roster later.
Our first mock draft ran on June 13. Below is our second 2025 first-round mock draft, updated to reflect the latest chatter, rumors, and speculation. We’ll have one last mock draft update between now and draft day.
1. Nationals: LHP Kade Anderson, LSU
Slot value: $11,075,900
Things remain wide open for the No. 1 pick and likely will right up until draft day. Anderson certainly helped his case with last weekend’s 10-strikeout complete game shutout over Coastal Carolina in Game 1 of the College World Series Finals, not that any one game with make or break a player’s draft stock. Ethan Holliday, the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday and the younger brother of Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, is firmly in the mix for the No. 1 pick, as are a few others. In a draft lacking a Bryce Harper type, that clear-cut No. 1 prospect, my hunch right now is the Nationals will go with the high-end college starter who could zoom through the system and join Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, et al in short order.
June 13 mock pick: IF Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS (OK)
2025 MLB Draft: Six candidates to go No. 1 as Nationals hold first pick, including a dark horse pitcher
R.J. Anderson
2. Angels: LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
Slot value: $10,252,700
The rumor all spring has been the Angels targeting a college pitcher, particularly one who will a) move through the system quickly, and b) take a below slot bonus, allowing the Angels to spend more on later picks. Doyle checks both boxes and has been frequently linked to the Halos. He struck out an incredible 164 batters in 95 ⅔ innings this season and could very well join Angels draftees Chase Silseth (2021), Zach Neto (2022), and Nolan Schanuel (2023) in being the first player from their draft classes to reach the big leagues. If Anderson is on the board for the No. 2 pick, the Angels still might go with Doyle. Anderson is a draft-eligible sophomore and has more negotiating leverage, which won’t fit the below-slot bonus strategy.
June 13 mock pick: Doyle
3. Mariners: LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
Slot value: $9,504,400
The Mariners moved up from the No. 17 pick to the No. 3 pick in the draft lottery and college pitching is their wheelhouse. Seattle’s in a great spot then. At least one of Anderson, Arnold, or Doyle is guaranteed to be on the board here. My guess, and I emphasize this is a guess, is they prefer them in that order. I don’t think Anderson gets past this pick. Anyway, Arnold has the best fastball in the country, an analytical darling with insane swing-and-miss rates. It’s easy to think the Mariners should target a college hitter who could get to T-Mobile Park in short order and help their offense, but the draft class doesn’t really lend itself to that. The top of the draft is college pitcher and high school position player heavy this year.
June 13 mock pick: LHP Kade Anderson, LSU
4. Rockies: IF Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS (OK)
Slot value: $8,770,900
It’s hard to imagine the Rockies will pass on Holliday, whose father Matt starred in Colorado from 2004-08, if he’s available for this pick. It wouldn’t be an undeserved pick either. Holliday would be a reasonable selection at No. 1 this year. In our mock draft, he’s on the board for the Rockies, which would give them a cool nostalgia win in addition to a really good prospect. I think the Rockies would go with Holliday even if Anderson or Arnold are still available. Seems unlikely, but you never know.
June 13 mock pick: LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
5. Cardinals: SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Slot value: $8,134,800
The Cardinals have been connected to Willits consistently over the last few weeks. His father, Reggie, played six seasons in the big leagues and has spent the last several years as a coach in both the majors and at the college level. St. Louis moved up from the No. 13 pick to the No. 5 pick in the draft lottery. This will be their highest pick since selecting J.D. Drew with the No. 5 pick in 1998. That lottery luck gives them access to Willits, a scout favorite for his well-rounded game and baseball IQ, who otherwise would have had no chance to be available when their original No. 13 pick rolled around.
June 13 mock pick: Willits
6. Pirates: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA)
Slot value: $7,558,600
The Pirates badly need to get Paul Skenes some offensive help, though this is not a good draft class for quick-moving college bats. Pittsburgh can either reach for a hitter or stick to its strengths with a pitcher. In this mock draft, that means grabbing Hernandez, who is arguably the most talented pitcher in the draft class. High school pitchers are a very risky demographic, but Hernandez has frontline stuff and command, and the Pirates have had success turning this skill set into big leaguers (Skenes, Jared Jones, eventually Bubba Chandler, etc.).
June 13 mock pick: SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
7. Marlins: SS Billy Carlson, Corona HS (CA)
Slot value: $7,149,900
It is no secret the Marlins have been all over this draft’s collection of high school shortstops, though I suppose that could always be misdirection. For now, we’ll stick with it. Carlson stands out from the pack and could even come in below slot, allowing Miami to spend more on their competitive balance pick (No. 43). It is a near certainty that both Carlson and his teammate, Seth Hernandez, will be first-round picks this year. When it happens, they will be the first set of high school teammates taken in the first round since Max Fried and Lucas Giolito in 2012.
June 13 mock pick: Carlson
8. Blue Jays: C Ike Irish, Auburn
Slot value: $6,813,600
Because of position scarcity, catchers always go higher than the public draft prospect rankings would lead you to believe (Irish is No. 15 in our rankings), and there’s a lot of buzz right now that Irish will hear his name called in the top 10 picks somewhere. He had an incredible finish to Auburn’s season, which left a great taste in everyone’s mouth, and there’s some thought he’s a candidate to move to the outfield to get his bat through the minors quicker. Catcher or outfielder, Irish’s bat will likely get him selected within picks 6-10 somewhere.
June 13 mock pick: RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma
9. Reds: RHP Gage Wood, Arkansas
Slot value: $6,513,800
No player in the draft class has improved his stock more in the last few weeks than Wood, who put an exclamation point on his season with a 19-strikeout no-hitter in his last College World Series start. Wood’s pitch traits (velocity, spin, movement, etc.) are off the charts good, good enough to overlook a sketchy injury history and short track record. Cade Horton made a similar meteoric rise in 2022 and went to the Cubs with the No. 7 selection.
June 13 mock pick: RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA)
10: White Sox: RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
Slot value: $6,238,400
Bremner entered the spring as a candidate to go No. 1 overall, though he had an up-and-down season, and his moneymaker of a slider was inconsistent. There have been rumblings that a team in the top 10 still likes him enough to take him high, and the White Sox are the last top 10 pick in our mock, so here you go. It fits though. The White Sox have gotten better at pitch design and things like that (Rule 5 Draft pick Shane Smith might be an All-Star), and Bremner would benefit from a team that can coach him up a bit. The arm talent that put him in the mix for the No. 1 pick is still in there.
June 13 mock pick: SS JoJo Parker, Purvis HS (MS)
11. Athletics: OF Brendan Summerhill, Arizona
Slot value: $5,985,100
In a way, Summerhill is the Gage Wood of position players in this year’s draft class. He’s rocketed up draft boards this spring because he’s a well-rounded player with strong underlying metrics. All indications are Summerhill will be a middle-of-the-first-round pick despite being considered more of a second rounder coming into 2025. The Athletics turned their 2023 (Jacob Wilson) and 2024 (Nick Kurtz) first-round picks into near-instant big leaguers. Summerhill could follow the same path.
June 13 mock pick: Summerhill
12. Rangers: SS JoJo Parker, Purvis HS (MS)
Slot value: $5,746,800
Pick a high school shortstop and the Rangers have been connected to him at some point this spring. Parker could go inside the top 10 somewhere, but he’s still available in our mock draft, so Texas makes sense. The Rangers have targeted high upside with their high draft picks under GM Chris Young, and although Parker may not have the loudest tools, he might be the best pure hitter in the draft. There is plenty of upside there.
June 13 mock draft: SS Steele Hall, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
13. Giants: SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Slot value: $5,524,300
I would be surprised — very surprised — if Arquette makes it all the way to the No. 13 pick on draft day. This mock pick falls into the “they couldn’t pass him up” category. Arquette has an outside chance to go No. 1 overall and seems likely to go in the 5-10 pick range somewhere because rarely does the best college middle infielder slip out of the top 10 picks. He did in our mock draft though. The Giants have a brand new front office led by GM Buster Posey. How Posey & Co. will approach the draft (college? high school? pitcher heavy? etc.) is anyone’s guess right now.
June 13 mock pick: SS Kayson Cunningham, Johnson HS (TX)
14. Rays: RHP Kyson Witherspoon, Oklahoma
Slot value: $5,313,100
The Rays have selected a pitcher in the first round just once in the last six drafts (Nick Bitsko in 2020) and the middle of the first round figures to be bat heavy this year, but Witherspoon has one of the better arms in the class, and would be difficult to pass up. There’s a chance he goes top 10. Tampa has been heavily connected to all the top high school shortstops. They have two extra picks this year — No. 37 (competitive balance pick) and No. 42 (from A’s in Jeffrey Springs trade) — and it’s likely at least one of those shortstops will be available then. A college player here and upside plays later is a reasonable strategy.
June 13 mock pick: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
15. Red Sox: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $5,114,200
LaViolette was the favorite to go No. 1 overall entering 2025, though a down spring likely bumped him into the middle of the first round. The Red Sox have not used a first-round pick on a pitcher since Tanner Houck in 2017 and getting LaViolette here would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago. He fits Boston’s archetype as a big-time power threat, though his approach is not as refined as some of their more recent first rounders (Braden Montgomery, Kyle Teel, etc.)
June 13 mock pick: SS Daniel Pierze, Mill Creek HS (GA)
16. Twins: SS Marek Houston, Wake Forest
Slot value: $4,929,600
Houston grades out well in analytical models that value contact and swing decisions over exit velocity, and the Twins do seem to place a premium on contact skills these days. It fits. Houston has a long track record of success, including with wood bats against top competition in the Cape Cod League last summer, and he took his power to a new level this spring. Quality college middle infielders never last long on draft day. Houston will go in the middle of the first round somewhere and Minnesota is as good a bet to call his name as any team.
June 13 mock pick: Houston
17. Cubs: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: $4,750,800
Aloy is sort of the opposite of Matt Shaw, Chicago’s 2023 first rounder, in that he stands out more for his raw power than his ability to control the strike zone. The Cubs have been connected to just about every college hitter who figures to go in this range (Houston, LaViolette, Summerhill, Gavin Kilen, etc.) and no one in that group would surprise me as the pick here.
June 13 mock pick: 2B Gavin Kilen, Tennessee
18. Diamondbacks: OF Slater de Brun, Summit HS (OR)
Slot value: $4,581,900
The fit is just too obvious. The D-backs love love love undersized hitters with contact skills and premium athleticism. Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas, former D-back Daulton Varsho, and last year’s first-rounder Slade Caldwell all fall into that bucket. So too does de Brun. Arizona also holds the No. 29 pick, which is the compensation pick for losing Christian Walker to free agency. There’s a real chance de Brun will still be on the board there. The D-backs could grab a college player here (Houston fits their preferred profile nicely) and still snag de Brun at No. 29. My guess is they won’t risk it and make sure they get the player who fits their M.O. perfectly here.
June 13 mock pick: de Brun
19. Orioles: 3B Xavier Neyens, Mount Vernon HS (WA)
Slot value: $4,420,900
It’s not often a team in the middle of the first round is connected to a prospect as frequently as the O’s have been connected to Neyens this spring. That almost makes me wonder if it’s misdirection, and they’re really looking at other players. He does fit their typical first-round profile as a kid with enormous power and some swing issues to clean up, for what it’s worth. GM Mike Elias took over in November 2018 and he has yet to use a first-round pick on a pitcher. No reason to think that will change this year. There aren’t any arms available who make sense at this pick in our mock draft anyway.
June 13 mock pick: Neyens
20. Brewers: 2B Gavin Kilen, Tennessee
Slot value: $4,268,100
Kilen is one of those second-tier college tiers who fits just about anywhere in the 11-20 range. He’s not the speedy, super athletic type the Brewers typically target in the first round (Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, etc.), but the pure hitting ability is up their alley. At this point in the first round, the top high-school infielders who are still on the board (Kayson Cunningham, Gavin Fien, Steele Hall, Daniel Pierce) would become candidates to fall out of the first round entirely and go to a team with extra picks and extra bonus pool money. Milwaukee is one of them. They hold the No. 32 pick as compensation for losing Willy Adames to free agency.
June 13 mock pick: IF/OF Sean Gamble, IMG Academy (FL)
21. Astros: C Caden Bodine, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $4,122,500
The Astros haven’t taken a high school player in the first round since Forrest Whitley in 2016, but that could change this year if things play out the way they do in our mock draft and some of those high school infielders are still available. For now, we’ll assume GM Dana Brown & Co. will go back to the college well with Bodine, a true switch-hitter with excellent framing skills. He’s the college catcher with the best chance to still be catching in, say, six years in the draft class.
June 13 mock pick: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
22. Braves: OF Mason Neville, Oregon
Slot value: $3,983,900
The Braves are quite good at coaching up power arms and I don’t think they would pass up either Tyner Bremner or Gage Wood in the event they’re available at this pick, which they aren’t in our mock draft. Neville is a tremendous athlete with huge power and swing-and-miss concerns, though he did a much better job making contact this spring. It’s been a while since he was a minor leaguer, but Austin Riley had similar swing-and-miss concerns as a prospect, and Atlanta helped him close those holes in his game. Neville is somewhat similar as a hitter, albeit as a lefty.
June 13 mock pick: RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara
23. Royals: SS Kayson Cunningham, Johnson HS (TX)
Slot value: $3,852,100
Typically when teams have extra picks, which the Royals do at No. 28 (the Prospect Promotion Incentive pick for Bobby Witt Jr. being 2024 AL MVP runner-up) and No. 71 (competitive balance), the play is to take the “safer” player first, then spend the savings on upside plays with the later picks. The Royals seem like a candidate to do the opposite and grab the high-end talent they want here, then figure out the rest later. Cunningham could hear his name called in the 10-14 range. Kansas City has really gone for upside with their last few first-round picks and I think they’d pounce on one of those prep position players who really has no business being on the board here for talent reasons, but would be available for money reasons.
June 13 mock pick: C/OF Ike Irish, Auburn
24. Tigers: 3B Josh Hammond, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)
Slot value: $3,726,300
The Tigers used several high picks on high school position players the last two years (Max Clark, Kevin McGonigle, Bryce Rainer) and hit on every single one, at least in terms of the players’ prospect stock now. When you’re really good at something, might as well stick to it. Hammond played both ways in high school and has real potential on the mound, but he wants to hit, and the thought is that there is major untapped potential as a position player. Get him focused on hitting and he could really take off. The Tigers also hold the No. 34 pick (competitive balance), but I’m not sure Hammond gets that far. It would likely be now or never for Detroit.
June 13 mock pick: SS/OF Tate Southisene, Basic HS (NV)
25. Padres: LHP Kruz Schoolcraft, Sunset HS (OR)
Slot value: $3,606,600
The safe bet is giving the Padres a high-upside high schooler. They’ve used their first-round pick on a high school player every year since taking Cal Quantrill with the No. 8 selection in 2016, oftentimes taking the prospect with the highest perceived ceiling who was available at their pick. In our mock draft, that’s Schoolcraft, a 6-foot-8 lefty with velocity and a deep arsenal. San Diego has a relatively small bonus pool ($6.6 million) and could have trouble making a pick like this work, though they would figure out the money before making the pick. It wouldn’t be a leap of faith.
June 13 mock pick: Schoolcraft
26. Phillies: SS Daniel Pierce, Mill Creek HS (GA)
Slot value: $3,492,200
The Phillies have not used their first-round pick on a college player since Bryson Stott in 2019, and with the way things have played out in this mock draft, I would expect them to go the high school route again. On talent, Pierce should go in the top 15-20 picks somewhere, but oftentimes these high schoolers make their way down into the compensation/competitive balance rounds, where teams with extra picks give them first-round bonuses with their extra pool money. The Phillies do not have an extra pick or extra bonus pool money, but Pierce is the kind of prospect they typically target.
June 13 mock pick: IF Gavin Fien, Great Oak HS (CA)
27. Guardians: 1B/3B Andrew Fischer, Tennessee
Slot value: $3,382,600
Fischer keeps getting mentioned as a potential middle-of-the-first-round pick after entering the spring as more of a second-round candidate. He can really hit, and he showed big-time power with wood bats in the Cape Cod League last summer. Where he plays at the next level (likely first base) is another matter. The Guardians have extra picks at No. 66 (competitive balance) and No. 70 (from D-backs in Josh Naylor trade), and nabbing a polished college bat like Fischer here, then leaning into upside later is a sensible strategy.
June 13 mock pick: OF Cam Cannarella, Clemson
The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees all had their first-round pick moved back 10 spots through CBT penalties. The Mets hold the No. 38 pick, the Yankees the No. 39 pick, and the Dodgers the No. 40 pick.