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Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2011 to 2023 seasons, there were 169 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 169, 114 (67.5%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing in on the 48 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first year, 39 (81.3%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 16 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 14 (87.5%) found the end zone more often the next year. Slot WRs Jason Avant (2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the two exceptions.
Last season, 29 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches, with notables under three scores including Jake Ferguson (0), Elijah Moore (1), Jaylen Waddle (2), Dalton Schultz (2), Chig Okonkwo (2), Hunter Henry (2) and Mike Gesicki (2).
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We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 45 instances in which a back failed to reach seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 45, 36 (or 80.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first year but each scored at least seven times the next season (Melvin Gordon III, Ryan Mathews, Lamar Miller, Brian Robinson Jr.). The average second-year touchdown total was 9.3!
In 2023, six RBs fell short of seven TDs on 200-plus touches and went on to rack up 200 touches in 2024. Of those six, four scored more TDs, with the exceptions Tony Pollard (6 to 5) and D’Andre Swift (6 to 6).
Last season, five RBs were held under seven TDs on 200-plus touches: Rico Dowdle (5 TDs), Pollard (5), Swift (6), Tyrone Tracy (6) and Najee Harris (6).
If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back — often in a big way — when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.
In this piece, I’ll be referencing expected touchdowns (xTD), which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player’s scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would’ve scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player’s 2024 usage tells us that we should expect a boost in scoring production this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 6
McBride was the poster boy for bad TD luck in 2024, totaling three scores (two receiving, neither of which came until Week 17) despite finishing second at the position in targets, catches, yards, end zone targets (10) and fantasy points. Incredibly, McBride led all tight ends in expected TDs (7.9) and although he also didn’t score much in 2023 (three TDs on 108 targets), we can safely expect a career high in 2025.
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 8
Pickens scored a career-low three TDs last season despite more than doubling his previous career total in end zone targets (12, compared to 10 during his first two seasons). The end zone target total ranked 12th among receivers (he caught only two of them) despite him missing three games and ranking 40th at the position in catches. Even in a new offense and with CeeDee Lamb in the mix, Pickens figures to boost his scoring big-time this season.
Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 7
Of the 11 players who handled 13-plus end zone targets last season, Odunze (who had exactly 13) was the only one with fewer than five TDs. The 2024 No. 9 overall pick was on the field a ton as a rookie (eighth among WRs in routes), but uneven QB play limited his efficiency (nine of the 13 end zone targets weren’t catchable and his 37% overall off-target rate was second highest among WRs). A second-year improvement from Caleb Williams would go a long way for Odunze.
Rome Odunze of the Chicago Bears looks to build on his total of three touchdowns from last season. AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vasquez
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
2024 TDs: 3
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Kelce was limited to a career-low three touchdowns last season, all of which came on his six end zone targets. It’s easy to write off the dip as a product of his age, but Kelce was still in the top five among tight ends in snaps, routes, targets, catches and yardage. Kelce remains a heavily utilized target in Kansas City’s pass-heavy offense and figures to find the end zone more often this season.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 3
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Ferguson holds the unfortunate distinction of having the most targets (88) among all players who failed to catch a touchdown pass last season. The tight end was limited to two end zone targets after pacing the position with 10 (which helped him to five TDs) in 2023. A healthy Dak Prescott will help his rebound chances in 2025.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 4
Etienne had a lot go wrong during a disappointing 2024, and a lack of scoring was one of them. After scoring 12 TDs (sixth most among RBs) and getting nine carries inside the 5-yard line in 2023, Etienne plummeted to two scores (both came during Weeks 1-2) and five carries inside the five last season. He might no longer be the team’s primary goal-line back (Tank Bigsby has taken that role), but he gets enough run to allow plenty more scoring.
Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
After overachieving with 15 touchdowns (8.9 xTD) during his first two NFL seasons, Waddle has been hit hard by regression the past two seasons (six TDs, 6.7 xTD). Waddle simply hasn’t been used much near the goal line (16 career end zone targets, including two in 15 games last season). The 26-year-old’s usage suggests he’ll never have a high TD ceiling, but he can certainly improve on two TDs on 92 targets, especially in a good Miami offense.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings
2024 TDs: 0
2025 Projected TDs: 4
You read that correctly: Hockenson didn’t find the end zone in any of his 10 regular-season games last season. Perhaps we shouldn’t be too shocked, as Hockenson has never been a big TD scorer (career high of six in 2020 and 2022), but he certainly saw enough work to allow a handful of scores (2.0 xTD, three end zone targets). For what it’s worth, the turnaround might have already started, as he caught Minnesota’s lone postseason touchdown.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
2024 TDs: 2
2025 Projected TDs: 5
Henry formed a nice connection with Drake Maye last season — he ranked top-eight among TEs in targets, catches and yards — but the touchdowns simply didn’t follow. Henry’s 4.8 xTD and six end zone targets both ranked top 12 at the position, but 25 tight ends scored more TDs. Henry does have a history of finding the end zone (eight in 2016, nine in 2021, six in 2023), and he rarely falls short of his expected total (40 TDs, 37.4 xTD in career). We can expect a rebound in 2025, especially as Maye enters Year 2.
Others: